Barroso's trip

 

Viktoria Panfilova, correspondent of Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Exclusively to VK

The President of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, starts his tour of former Soviet republics today. First the president will travel to Chișinău, then head to Tbilisi and on June 13 he will arrive in Baku. The aims of these visits are different.

His visits to Chișinău and Tbilisi will show that the EU supports the Moldovan and Georgian authorities political course aimed at the European integration of the republics. These countries are set to sign an association agreement with the EU on June 27. At the same time, Barroso's visits are expected to show Russia that the EU is quite serious about its cooperation with the two states. The European authorities want to prove that the Ukrainian scenario cannot be implemented in these countries. However, Russia has already got plans to ban Moldovan imports and impose additional measures aimed at worsening conditions for possible labour migrants from the country. The Russian-language regions of the country and the Gagauz autonomy are deeply worried about such a move.

The situation in Georgia is much more stable. There are no tensions over the association agreement with the EU. At the same time, Russia has no means to put pressure the country. All it can do is impose an embargo on Georgian products once again. However the Georgian prime minister's special representaive for Russia, Zurab Abashidze, has already said that, according to Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Grigory Karasin, Russia was not going to sabotage Georgia's integration into the EU.

Barroso's trip to Azerbaijan will be a bit different. The president of the European Commission will not travel to Yerevan, so the unofficial rule of visiting both countries during every trip to the region will be broken. However Barroso has specified that his visit is not going to be a regional tour, as he is not going to visit Armenia. Despite the official not saying why he made such a decision, the reason seems quite clear. The EU is disappointed with Armenia's decision to join the Eurasian Union rather than signing the association agreement with the EU. Of course, the EU officials say that their mutual cooperation will continue, but seems like these statements are baseless.

Azerbaijan's position was much more consistent. The country left the Eastern Partnership right away and said that it was not going to sign the association agreement with the European Union. Neither is it going to sign an agreement with the Eurasion Union. Azerbaijan wants to stay apart from alliances whose interests are different. However, the country is ready to improve bilateral ties with each member of these bodies. Thus one may think that Barroso's visit to Azerbaijan has nothing to do with politics. There is however something else.

Immediately after President Barroso, the country is going to be visited by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. At the end of June Russian Parliamentary Speaker Sergey Narushkin is also going to pay a visit to the country. Azerbaijani experts believe that these visits show how important Azerbaijan is in today's political situation. Expert suppose that both President Barroso and the Russian officials will pursue Azerbaijan to drop its neutral line and join one of the integration projects.

The question is what the EU and Russia can offer Azerbaijan. The country's major problem is the ongoing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Perhaps the EU and Russian officials will promise to back Azerbaijan in the matter. This means that Russia's offer will be more appealing, since the country has great influence on Armenia. However the issue is so sensitive that one can hardly predict possible results.

Russian Minister for Economic Development Alexey Ulukayev, who visited Azerbaijan a week ago, suggested that Azerbaijan should consider membership in the Eurasian Economic Union. The Azerbaijani side reacted by saying that it is ready to cooperate with all partners, but is not ready for such multilateral cooperation. Perhaps this position will be voiced again soon.