After Russian banned western food imports last week the European Commission ordered national agricultural ministries to estimate the damage caused by the Russian government's decision. According to some data, EU imports constitute 70 percent of all products banned by the Russian authorities. According to the Russian president's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, the sanctions introduced by Russia may not be the last ones if western powers continue to pressure the country. "These sanctions were not initiated by Russia. We were forced to introduce these sanctions. It was a response to measures taken by other countries," Peskov told reporters on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Russian experts are afraid that a domino effect may seriously harm the Russian economy. According to the chair of the Russian Potato Union, Sergey Lupekhin, if western powers impose additional sanctions on Russia, the country may experience an actual food crisis. The country's agricultural industry is not ready to solve such a problem at the moment, he stresses. "Unfortunately, several spheres of production have been ruined. Such spheres as selection, production of seeds and agricultural machinery are nearly dead. We cannot overcome these difficulties in one year. It's almost impossible," he said. "However, we can enhance cooperation between retailers and producers. Retailers will now have to cooperate with local producers of food," he added.
Speaking about the necessity to increase production, Lupekhin said that this task cannot be coped with in the very near future. The reason is a lack of qualified specialists. "In 6-7 years, the people who received their education during the Soviet times will all retire. Who will work in this sphere? In such regions as Stavropol, Krasnodar and Voronezh the situation is alright, however there is no human resources policy, no qualified experts who would be able to conduct laboratory work and selection," he said.
The director of the Institute for Strategic Analysis of the FBK company, Igor Nikolayev, believes the main problem the Russian economy faces is rapid inflation caused by limited market supply. According to the expert, cheese imports will decrease by 30 percent, fruit and vegetable imports by almost 15 percent, fish imports by about 13 percent. "Of course it will not lead to a deficit, of course it does not mean that there will be no cheese at all. Several kinds of cheese are produced in Russia, but the assortment will differ greatly," he said.
According to Nikolayev, in first seven months of 2014 prices for food increased by 7.6 percent. "Average inflation amounted to 5.3 percent. Prices for food increased by 7.6 percent without any sanctions. What does this figure tell us? It shows that prices are increasing faster than was forecast. Annual inflation was expected to constitute 4.8 percent. This figure has already been topped. It means that the prices for food would increase by 10 percent. Now it's clear the increase will be even greater," the expert said.
On the other hand the restrictions imposed on foreign products were welcomed by some Russian companies who believe that the sanctions give them better opportunities on the Russian market. The chairman of the Russian Fruit Growers Union, Oleg Valenchuk, says the sanctions will have a positive effect on Russia's agricultural industry. "Of course we will not experience a deficit. On the contrary, we will be able to buy healthy and high-quality products. Russia is the world's biggest agricultural country. There should be no doubts that Russia is able to feed itself and even other countries," he said.
