After fierce fights with Kurdish defenses yesterday, Islamic State (ISIS) raised its flag over a building in Kobani on the Syrian-Turkish border. Turkey is moving tanks and missile systems to the Syrian border. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg promised that the Alliance will protect Turkey from ISIS, it has already prepared to protect Ankara.
Ambassador Pyotr Stegniy, an expert of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, said that ISIS was a serious threat and the chances of terrorism and extremism spreading to other territories, including the Caucasus, was high. The caliphate map published by Al Qaeda includes the Caucasus enclave in its geopolitical plans.
Concerning Turkey's decision to permit deployment of forces in Syria, Stegniy believes that it reflects readiness and understanding of the Turkish government for active defense with account of serious problems, threats and future threats associated with ISIS: "No one is talking about sending forces over the border. There are talks about a 30km security belt that had existed and played a positive role in Iraq during aggravation of Kurdish-Turkish tensions."
Stegniy supposes that Turkey continues its pragmatic policy, despite uncertainty about the goals of the coalition: "It is unclear who their main enemy is, terrorists of ISIS or Bashar Assad's regime. The shadow of this ambiguity is certainly projected on Turkey too, that is why questions arise. It will be hard to monitor the real development of the situation and correct initial conclusions, depending on many surprises awaiting ahead."
"The government of Ahmet Davutoglu will have to be careful in evaluating the situation, its dynamic changes, setting tactical goals as it progresses. Turkish president Erdogan made concrete agreements with the Americans at the latest session of the UN General Assembly, where he talked with Obama by telephone, then met Biden. This refers to readiness to help the coalition with logistics, including serious infrastructure, military opportunities on Turkish territory. This refers to the zone on the border with Syria, but I would not call it an exclusion zone or a buffer zone," says Stegniy. The Turks are against calling it a buffer zone, because buffer zones are formed between sides at war. Turkey is not at war, it is defending.
"That nuance is very important for those who want to understand the Turkish position and its function line. The Turks speak about the formation of security pockets, in other words local groups, where, as I remember, refugees could be concentrated, their flow is constant. Evaluating the Turkish situation, it is important to understand that they are under pressure, they have up to 1.5 million Syrian refugees. They have very serious problems."
Stegniy has spent four decades in the Middle East and considers air raids against ISIS hasty and unwise.
