On December 8, 1991, the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus signed the Belavezha Accords, disbanding the USSR and forming the CIS. Two and a half weeks later, eight more republics joined the new agreement. The participants at a round-table conference entitled “The South Caucasus and new tendencies in the transformation of post-Soviet space”, organized by the MSU History Faculty, Vestnik Kavkaza and the North-South Politological Center, have discussed the lessons of the past decades, the disintegration of the “empire”, conflicts on the post-USSR territories and other problems.
Alan Kasayev, deputy head of the higher journalism mastery sub-department of the MSLU, commenting on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, reminded that the war, with thousands of victims killed for a patch of land on the territory of the former Azerbaijani SSR, was concluded with a quasi-state structure called the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. No one could guess then that 22 years would pass and the state established by the ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan would survive for so long, the expert believes.
Kasayev compared it to the events in the south-east of Ukraine, where a ceasefire could also last for 20 years. “If that happens, I ask you not to be surprised at anything, because it is a very clear precedent in the history of the development of post-Soviet states, it is a very clear example, and note that it is not unique.”
According to the expert, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic exists with the help of the ceasefire agreement, a document illegitimate under international law. Several resolutions of the UN Security Council, decisions of the UN General Assembly, tens of thousands of hours of negotiations, hundreds of pages of interstate protocols have supplemented it. “The territory exists thanks to or despite of what was negotiated in different formats, in the bilateral format – Azerbaijan and Armenia, in the trilateral format – Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia, in the quadrilateral format under mediation of Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev, in the pentalateral format – plus Turkey, in the hexalateral format – plus Iran,” reminded Kasayev.
“In the over 20 years of the existence of Nagorno-Karabakh as an unrecognized state, or quasi state, absolutely different examples of aggravation of the situation have arisen. Up to the most dramatic aggravation that happened last summer 2014, when all parameters, internal and external, were demonstrating that a hot phase would soon arise. Fortunately, it did not happen, the population of Armenia and the population of Azerbaijan avoided it, also with the help of the simultaneous processes in the south-east of Ukraine. No great power can afford to have two bloody wars break out in a narrow place at the same time.
The causes of the disintegration of the Soviet Union still exist, they are externally reflected in the form of what Russia took from Georgia. Could Russia take away Georgian territories that had absolutely macabre, Medieval hideousness going on for 20 years, the years when the great empire was falling, the great Soviet Union? It could, that would mean the end of at least two ancient peoples on the territories – Abkhazians and Ossetians… The interference of Russia in the story has become a continuation of the historical road of disintegration of one country, the disintegration of one empire,” the expert believes.
Kasayev expressed the opinion that the transformation of the post-Soviet space is not over: “We see how processes analogical to Nagorno-Karabakh happen in the south-east of Ukraine, and that it may as well be happening in the parameters and a new proto-state will appear with the same grade of legitimization, then turn into a quasi state with not even the slightest chances of international recognition but with features of a permanent one, would take place on the body of Ukraine and all over the post-Soviet space.”
Concerning the impact of disintegration processes of the USSR on the shift of spheres of influence and territory of Russia, Kasayev said that such an impact was possible. “But luckily the lack of any such tendencies today or in the near future is a different story. It does not mean that there aren't any or that they cannot manifest themselves in any unexpected form and in any unexpected place at any time.”
Says Alan KasayevOn December 8, 1991, the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus signed the Belavezha Accords, disbanding the USSR and forming the CIS. Two and a half weeks later, eight more republics joined the new agreement. The participants at a round-table conference entitled “The South Caucasus and new tendencies in the transformation of post-Soviet space”, organized by the MSU History Faculty, Vestnik Kavkaza and the North-South Politological Center, have discussed the lessons of the past decades, the disintegration of the “empire”, conflicts on the post-USSR territories and other problems.Alan Kasayev, deputy head of the higher journalism mastery sub-department of the MSLU, commenting on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, reminded that the war, with thousands of victims killed for a patch of land on the territory of the former Azerbaijani SSR, was concluded with a quasi-state structure called the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. No one could guess then that 22 years would pass and the state established by the ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan would survive for so long, the expert believes.Kasayev compared it to the events in the south-east of Ukraine, where a ceasefire could also last for 20 years. “If that happens, I ask you not to be surprised at anything, because it is a very clear precedent in the history of the development of post-Soviet states, it is a very clear example, and note that it is not unique.”According to the expert, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic exists with the help of the ceasefire agreement, a document illegitimate under international law. Several resolutions of the UN Security Council, decisions of the UN General Assembly, tens of thousands of hours of negotiations, hundreds of pages of interstate protocols have supplemented it. “The territory exists thanks to or despite of what was negotiated in different formats, in the bilateral format – Azerbaijan and Armenia, in the trilateral format – Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia, in the quadrilateral format under mediation of Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev, in the pentalateral format – plus Turkey, in the hexalateral format – plus Iran,” reminded Kasayev. “In the over 20 years of the existence of Nagorno-Karabakh as an unrecognized state, or quasi state, absolutely different examples of aggravation of the situation have arisen. Up to the most dramatic aggravation that happened last summer 2014, when all parameters, internal and external, were demonstrating that a hot phase would soon arise. Fortunately, it did not happen, the population of Armenia and the population of Azerbaijan avoided it, also with the help of the simultaneous processes in the south-east of Ukraine. No great power can afford to have two bloody wars break out in a narrow place at the same time.The causes of the disintegration of the Soviet Union still exist, they are externally reflected in the form of what Russia took from Georgia. Could Russia take away Georgian territories that had absolutely macabre, Medieval hideousness going on for 20 years, the years when the great empire was falling, the great Soviet Union? It could, that would mean the end of at least two ancient peoples on the territories – Abkhazians and Ossetians… The interference of Russia in the story has become a continuation of the historical road of disintegration of one country, the disintegration of one empire,” the expert believes.Kasayev expressed the opinion that the transformation of the post-Soviet space is not over: “We see how processes analogical to Nagorno-Karabakh happen in the south-east of Ukraine, and that it may as well be happening in the parameters and a new proto-state will appear with the same grade of legitimization, then turn into a quasi state with not even the slightest chances of international recognition but with features of a permanent one, would take place on the body of Ukraine and all over the post-Soviet space.”Concerning the impact of disintegration processes of the USSR on the shift of spheres of influence and territory of Russia, Kasayev said that such an impact was possible. “But luckily the lack of any such tendencies today or in the near future is a different story. It does not mean that there aren't any or that they cannot manifest themselves in any unexpected form and in any unexpected place at any tim
