Recognition is impossible to reject

The U.S. Congress’s public resolution on the “Armenian genocide” may provoke Ankara to abandon the normalization of relations with Yerevan.

The resolution on the "Armenian genocide," proposed for consideration by the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Relations of Congress Howard Berman on March 4, could be the final nail in the lid of the coffin of not only Turkish-American, but also Armenian-Turkish relations.

For many years, the Armenian diaspora and, particularly, the American Armenian Diaspora have been making a remarkable effort to achieve the recognition of the events of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire as the “genocide” of the Armenian people. In 1974 and 1985, Congress considered resolutions on the Armenian “genocide” and President Reagan pronounced the word in relation to the events of 1915, but the process of U.S. recognition ended at this point.

Neither of the Bush presidents, nor Clinton, nor even Barack Obama, who promised during his election campaign to recognize the "genocide", have not uttered the cherished word. It is quite understandable, since the refusal of the U.S. administration to recognize the "genocide" has played a great positive role in U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, specifically in relations with Israel, and later in Iraq and Afghanistan, where Turkey's support is decisive.

However, recent developments in the South Caucasus region prodded the U.S. to undertake drastic action, where the end is more important than the means used to achieve it. The U.S. feels that Turkey is becoming an independent regional player and Washington's short-sightedness may now affect the total cooling of relations with Ankara.

Turkish officials have already spoken several times about the negative effects of not only an adoption of the resolution on the "genocide", but also of the very fact of the consideration of such by Congress. The Turkish Foreign Office has sent a letter to the U.S. Congress stating that any consideration of the "Armenian genocide” will have a negative influence on peace settlement issues in the South Caucasus region, as CNN Turk reported.

"The consideration of the law on the ‘Armenian genocide’ of 1915 will strike a blow to USA-Turkish relations and Turkey hopes that the U.S. Congress will not consider the issue", the letter said.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that the very fact that Congress had brought up the "Armenian genocide" for discussion was being used to exert pressure on Turkey.

It is quite surprising that the U.S. did not foresee such a violent response of Ankara to the initiative of Congressman Berman.  It was obvious that Turkey would draw its own conclusions, which would be quite upsetting for Washington. Moreover, the U.S. threatens by such actions not only its relationship with its long-standing strategic partner, but also nullifies its own efforts to normalize relations between Yerevan and Ankara. The fact of the consideration of the long-standing historical argument drives a wedge between the two countries and aggravates the discussion, acute as it is, between the Armenians and the Turks concerning the events of 1915. Against the background of the fact that the talks had come to a standstill, and both sides have been making their alterations of the text of the signed protocols, the U.S. step has aggravated the situation. By trying to put pressure upon Turkey, Washington seems to have gone too far and caused the opposite of what it wanted to achieve.

But despite this, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes Turkish-American relations shouldn't be jeopardized by the consideration of the resolution.

"I count on the good sense of President Obama, who is observing the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations" - said Erdogan in Turkey’s parliament on March 3.

As an aside, anticipating the possibility of Obama uttering the word "genocide" on April 24, the day of commemoration of the victims of the events of 1915, the Turkish premier will visit the United States, where, apparently, he is going to try to prevent one more possible mistake by Obama. Time will show whether the symbolic word will be uttered in USA, but the cooling of relations between Ankara and Washington as a domino effect could lead to irreversible consequences, adversely affecting bilateral relations between Ankara and Yerevan and forcing Ankara to a final rejection of the normalization of relations with Armenia.

Emma Tariverdieva, Baku. Exclusively for VC