By Vestnik Kavkaza
An agreement on the Iranian nuclear program may be reached on November 24. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that Tehran was on the right track at the negotiations with the six international mediators. He admitted that development of the Iranian economy depended on relations with the rest of the world. Professor Vladimir Sazhin, a senior scientist of the RAS Institute for Oriental Studies, said that “many participants of negotiations of the 5+1 group and Iran are saying that it is quite possible to conclude the long and hard work on formation of the final integral agreement on the Iranian nuclear program on November 24. 95% of the agreement has been approved. There are 5% of technically complicated moments left.”
Sazhin named the following unresolved issues: “The volumes of permissible uranium enrichment by Iran, the terms of the future agreement, the years it will be under strict control of Iran. There are such figures as 10-20 years. I think that the main issue of Iran is the lifting of sanctions, what algorithm for lifting of sanctions there will be. There are sanctions adopted by independent states or groups of states – the European Union, the U.S., Australia, there are many countries that should lift their unilateral sanctions independently. For example, it is quite a complicated process in America because nothing can be done without Congress, Congress backs the policy of Obama’s administration for Iran.”
Sazhin considers the lifting of sanctions to be a complicated problem: “Should they be lifted immediately, simultaneously, if we sign the agreement and lift the sanctions? Or should there be some process? In other words, some sanctions are lifted at first, then others and so on. It is easier to impose sanctions than lift them.”
The most important thing, according to the expert, is that the West agrees to consider Iran a nuclear state: “A “nuclear state” does not imply that Iran possesses nuclear weapons, it means that Iran may undertake independent nuclear research and so on, but doubtlessly under the control of the IAEA. And my personal opinion is that the most important thing in the agreement is the guarantee that Iran will comply with the demands of the additional protocol of the agreement with the IAEA. All countries taking part in the IAEA sign a corresponding agreement that implies control of all nuclear activities by one country or another by the IAEA. In other words, for example, if IAEA inspectors or IAEA authorities say that they are arriving tomorrow, they will inspect a facility, and the country should give the opportunities without some bureaucratic or other impediments. In other words, without any additional notification.”
According to Sazhin, Iran signed the additional protocol, but the parliament did not ratify it. “Nonetheless, Iran was not fulfilling the demands of the additional protocol without ratification by its parliament for two or three years, until Ahmadinejad became president. But after Ahmadinejad took power, the Iranians refused to fulfil it. Although they say that he has been fulfilling the protocol in the last months. But the issue needs to be fixed in the final agreement under preparation now. The most important thing is clear control over the nuclear activities of Iran. That is why it is practically impossible to do anything with strict control beyond the IAEA.”
Sazhin believes that many in Iran are awaiting the signing of the agreement, though not all: “Any document developed at the end of the negotiations will be taken by Rouhani as a victory of Iranian diplomacy, as a victory of Iran. The Americans and the Europeans are interested in resolving the Iranian nuclear program soon. According to my deep conviction, it is absolutely unimportant whether they sign it on November 24, December 24 or January 24. The most important thing is that the quality of the document be completed to the smallest detail, to the last comma, so that there would be no disputes over certain provisions of the agreement, so that there would be no questions about the future of the Iranian nuclear program, there would be no future issues about lifting of sanctions and what would happen after the lifting of sanctions. November 24 is a political line, it is important primarily for the administration of Rouhani and the administration of Obama. The most important thing for a settlement of the Iranian nuclear problem is to get the Iranian problem off the agenda of world policy.”
