The reasons why there are regular fights for power and control over financial resources
By Vestnik Kavkaza
After processing 90.02 percent of the protocols in single-seat majority districts in the parliamentary elections which took place on Sunday in Ukraine, the party of Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk, “People’s Front”, is still the leader, with 22.16 percent of the votes. The Petro Poroshenko Coalition has 21.77 percent of the votes. “Self-reliance” has 10.96 percent; the Opposition Coalition – 9.35 percent. The Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko has 7.46 percent; Batkivshchina got 5.7 percent of votes. The situation that will occur in the Ukrainian parliament after the elections is commented on by a political consultant, the head of the company “Slobodchuk and Partners: Politics, PR, Elections” Sergei Slobodchuk.
- Is the situation in the Rada stable after the elections? Can Ukraine expect regular conflicts between factions?
- Today in Ukraine the Constitution of 2004 is in operation. This means the parliamentary-presidential model of a state. All countries of Europe rejected this strange combination of a bulldog and a rhino long ago. Only in Portugal can we see a similar model.
The Ukrainian variation of the parliamentary-presidential republic requires equal volumes of power of the President and the Premier who is elected by the Verkhovna Rada. If we take into account the corrupt reality of Ukraine, a constant conflict of interest appears. The President’s team wants to win a tender, but it is won by the Premier’s people. Starting with such small things, there is a fight for power and control over financial flows. The brightest period of this was 2006-2010. In 2006-2007 Victor Yushchenko’s people fought Victor Yanukovich’s supporters; it led to the dismissal of the parliament and early elections in autumn 2007. Then, the people of Yushchenko fought the people of Premier Yulia Tymoshenko. In 2008 Yushchenko announced early elections, but Tymoshnko’s lawyers blocked it in the court.
Thus, the constitution requires a constant internal conflict which is not a constructive conflict of ideas, views or programs targeted at development of the economy and development of the country, but it is a conflict for money. It is difficult to work in this situation. If Petro Poroshenko’s Coalition doesn’t get into the parliamentary coalition, it means the President will oppose the Verkhovna Rada, while the Rada will oppose the President.
Even if the winners of the elections unite, a conflict is inevitable, as the volumes of power are identical.
Everybody in Ukraine has become accustomed to the President having a broad arsenal. But it turns out his power is taken by the Cabinet of Ministers and the Premier. The question is not about a final coalition, but about the initial unconstructive parliamentary-presidential model. It prevents the country from developing.
- Why did the People’s Front of Yatsenyuk get the biggest number of votes?
- Pre-election surveys that predicted the party would take 3rd or 4th place were right. These are the dirtiest elections since 2004. There was a great number of violations, armed people were present at ballot stations. I think there were falsifications. Many acting officials and bureaucrats are members of the People’s Front; its administrative resources are the courts and district commissions. So the result is not a surprise.
I don’t believe in such results. The results of the elections couldn’t differ from public opinion polls by 10 percent. I don’t want to say that the People’s Front is the worst player, as all parties falsified, bribed voters, and so on. The People’s Front simply has a more favorable position.
- Self-reliance got 11%. What is its fate in the Rada?
- Self-reliance is a regional project of the Mayor of Lvov Andrei Sadovoy. He presents himself as an effective city manager, a successful person. His success consists of several elements.
Firstly, there is a demand for new faces.
Secondly, Andrei Sadovoy presents himself as a person who has certain achievements in city management, and he is ready to spread this experience to the whole Ukraine. The combination works: new faces, effective management, effective experience, an absence of loud scandals and negative stories.
The party was established not long ago; previously there was a public organization – Self-reliance. They demonstrated good results in the elections to Kiev City Hall and decided to participate in the parliamentary elections.
Thirdly, they have serious financial sponsors.
These three factors played a role. Moreover, at the moment military activities have stopped. When there is war, when day by day the TV shows war, murders, fighting, it exaggerates hysteria. And this is the most favorable situation for radicals, for instance, Lyashko. But today we have a ceasefire; and voters want to see constructive people in power, as war is destruction. So Sadovoy and his project turned out to be a constructive political force. They wouldn’t have got such results if there was war.
- How will the independent deputies in the Rada act? Will they get about a quarter of the parliament’s seats?
- Many of them participated in the elections as independent deputies, but with the support of either Petro Poroshenko’s Coalition or the People’s Front or the Opposition Coalition, which consists of former members of the Party of Regions. They realized that the voters won’t vote for representatives of a major party. But they will join factions of pro-governmental and pro-presidential parties. Most of them are businessmen who cannot be opposition activists. They will strive for a coalition.
