By Vestnik Kavkaza
This year a round table titled “Post-Soviet Space: Civilized Aspects of Modern Crises and Conflicts” took place in Baku. It was organized by the office of the Russian political scientific center “Sever-Yug” and the information and analytical agency Vestnik Kavkaza. The participants of the meeting were experts and political scientists from Azerbaijan, Russia and Ukraine, who discussed the Ukrainian events.
Yevgeny Kopatko, a sociologist and founder of the Research and Branding Group Company, expressed the view that for many years the Ukrainian topic was disregarded: “For a long time Ukraine was considered to be a territory through which a pipeline passes and it was thought nothing bad could happen, due to the similar mentalities and historic closeness. There are no people in the world who could be closer than ours. Two years ago we conducted a survey and asked Ukrainians: “Do you have close or distant relatives in Russia?” 85% of citizens said that they have, and only 36% responded that they don’t. (85% is the sum of both groups). Nevertheless, two thirds of respondents admitted that they have relatives in Russia.”
According to the sociologist, at the moment “we have forgotten how to solve problems on our own. A generation which doesn’t remember the Soviet Union grew up in the post-Soviet space. Unfortunately, the people who tried to solve our problems for us interfered with the process.”
Kopatko calls the Ukrainian development an awful tragedy: “I cite Robert Shapiro, who said that there are three factors which influence development in the early 21st century – the demographic factor, the fight for energy resources and the consequences of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The factor of the Soviet Union is global, the shift from a bipolar world to a unipolar world became our reality. Ukraine has been proud for years that we had no conflicts like in Transdniestria, Central Asia, the Caucasus. But when we stepped into the conflict it was developing quickly and broadly.
Hundredso of thousands of people are involved in the conflict, and the tectonic migration shifts which are taking place in our country will lead to negative consequences.”
According to Kopatko’s data, “at the moment about 1 million people have left Ukraine. Most of them left for Russia. Hundredso of thousands of people left for other regions of Ukraine, who didn’t accept the developments in the east of Ukraine. Tense of thousands left for Crimea in the summer, when active military activities started, and a significant part of them never came back. And few thousand, I mean wealthy people, left for the far abroad.”
The expert is concerned about the fact that a lot of people of the Russian culture and mentality are involved in the conflict, Russian-speaking people who view Russia negatively at the moment. “A month ago I visited Tbilisi, and I pointed out good personal communication. Three airplanes flew at one time – two were from Moscow, one was from St. Petersburg. And relations between the Russians and the Georgians were absolutely comfortable. You won’t see this in Ukraine today,” Kopatko says.
He recalls when the Maidan conflict was growing, the conflicting energy grew rapidly. “I cited Nestor Makhno at a press conference, his works and memories of his contemporaries. I asked: “When was it written?” They answered: “Yesterday or a day before yesterday.” No! 97 years ago! The events had already happened in our territory, and they led to colossal losses,” the sociologist says.
Speaking about the prospects for a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, Kopatko stated that he was pessimistic about them: “The losses of Ukraine are fatal at the moment. The migration of many people, loss of economic potential, military conflict – everyday resources are being exhausted. For all my life I’ve been living in Donetsk. I know my region well and understand what happens. I refer to foreign periodicals, as there is no sense in citing the Russians and the Ukrainians. According to Spiegel, 69 of 93 mines have been shut down in the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions. 7 of 11 iron and steel works are not working. 40 small and medium-sized businesses have been bankrupted. Hundreds of thousands of people were involved in the process. Plus, those who passed through the conflict and left, many of them will never come back.
They say the Donetsk Region was state-financed. Don’t believe them! The Donetsk Region brought 12% of the Ukrainian GDAP. 10% of the population provided 12% of the GDP. The Lugansk Region gave 4-5% of the GDP and had 5% of the population. At the moment there is a conflict zone where 6.5 million citizens are concentrated. Winter is coming, and we cannot predict what will happen with people.”
The expert says nobody should have illusions that the consequences which touched on Russia won’t touch on Ukraine: “$17 billion of contracts touched on Ukraine. According to Western resources, industrial production decreased by 85% in the Lugansk Region, and by 56% in the Donetsk region. I mean such military industrial enterprises as Motor Sich, the Nikolayev Shipbuilding Plant, IZHMASH, the Malyshev Plant, and Turboatom.” I named only five plants which had serious contacts with Russia. The loss of this potential will lead to further de-industrialization of Ukraine.”
Kopatko also pointed out that after the process of actual decentralization of Russia started after the elections: “The Zakarpatye, Dnepropetrovsk, Vinnitsa Regions – deputies who represented one clan won there. In the Vinnitsa Region Poroshenko dominates, in the Dnepropetrovsk Refion - Igor Kolomoysky. And this is only a start. As resources are running out in the country, they should be substituted.”
The sociologist doesn’t try to find those who are right and those who are guilty; he stated that a kin-on-kin war is going on in Ukraine, and people who have similar passports, belong to one religion, who used to work, serve together and were friends are now on opposite sides of the barricades.
