According to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, the Armenian Armed Forces have violated the ceasefire regime on the frontline 90 times. The situation remains tense since summer, Armenian actions have escalated since autumn. This includes Armenian military maneuvers on occupied territories and flights of Armenian helicopters over Azerbaijani territory, resulting in the destruction of one of them.
Commenting on the prospects of developments around Nagorno-Karabakh, Sergey Markedonov, a docent of the subdepartment for regional studies and foreign policy of the Russian State University for the Humanities, a political expert, said: “Concerning the Karabakh settlement, we often pronounce the word combination, neglecting its meaning. Each side has a different understanding of the formula. If it is the self-determination of Nagorno-Karabakh through independent statehood or through fusion with “Greater Armenia” in Armenia’s vision, it is restoration of territorial integrity and, let’s say, the Azerbaijani flag in Khankendi, not even Stepanakert, for Azerbaijan. In other words, those are absolutely different prospects.”
Speaking about the Madrid Principles, the main starting point for settlement of the conflict, Markedonov noted that there were many questions left without answers. “The last provision of the Madrid Principles about a referendum on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh is very controversial. Would it be held on the territory of the former NKAO or would the occupied districts vote too? Which refugees would take part, which would not? It is an important question. Obviously, it would arise immediately, even if the updated Madrid Principles were signed. On the one hand, the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, on the other, the Lachin corridor is mentioned, it should connect Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh. Questions arise here. What does the corridor mean? Is it all the Lachin District or just a part of it? There are very many uncertainties. It provokes different interpretations in Baku and Yerevan,” says Markedonov.
He emphasized that the referendum results would reflect the interests of Yerevan in the context of the current status of Karabakh.
Armenia proposed the participation of the Armenian community living in Karabakh in the peace process. Baku rejected this proposal, because it was not taking the interests of Azerbaijani refugees into account. Concerning the government of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Azerbaijan calls it absurd, because the republic has not been recognized by any country of the world.
“A very important moment that Baku is sensitive about is the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh as a subject at the negotiations. But you see what the problem is: the future status would not concern the inhabitants of Razdan, Dilijan, Yerevan, Artashat. It will concern the people living there. It can certainly be ignored at the negotiations, but to what extent can Yerevan fully take the interests there, on the land, into account? The interests, as the practice of the 1990-2000s shows, do not always coincide,” Markedonov reflects.
The expert remains steadfast that settlement of the conflict is in the hands of Baku and Yerevan: “Moscow or Washington cannot do that work, no matter how eager Baku and Yerevan are. Finding a formula of a pragmatic solution that Egypt and Israel found in their time, going through several wars, grave repercussions: and refugees, and exchange of populations, etc. But a compromise formula was found. I think that moment should become a priority.”
Speaking about the negotiating process, Markedonov opined that the countries should concentrate on prevention of incidents hindering the negotiation process instead of swift searches for a final peace formula. “An escalation there, a helicopter there, an artillery attack there: it all contributes nothing to the atmosphere of a search for a peaceful solution,” the expert concluded.
instead of swift searches for a final peace formulaAccording to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, the Armenian Armed Forces have violated the ceasefire regime on the frontline 90 times. The situation remains tense since summer, Armenian actions have escalated since autumn. This includes Armenian military maneuvers on occupied territories and flights of Armenian helicopters over Azerbaijani territory, resulting in the destruction of one of them.Commenting on the prospects of developments around Nagorno-Karabakh, Sergey Markedonov, a docent of the subdepartment for regional studies and foreign policy of the Russian State University for the Humanities, a political expert, said: “Concerning the Karabakh settlement, we often pronounce the word combination, neglecting its meaning. Each side has a different understanding of the formula. If it is the self-determination of Nagorno-Karabakh through independent statehood or through fusion with “Greater Armenia” in Armenia’s vision, it is restoration of territorial integrity and, let’s say, the Azerbaijani flag in Khankendi, not even Stepanakert, for Azerbaijan. In other words, those are absolutely different prospects.”Speaking about the Madrid Principles, the main starting point for settlement of the conflict, Markedonov noted that there were many questions left without answers. “The last provision of the Madrid Principles about a referendum on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh is very controversial. Would it be held on the territory of the former NKAO or would the occupied districts vote too? Which refugees would take part, which would not? It is an important question. Obviously, it would arise immediately, even if the updated Madrid Principles were signed. On the one hand, the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, on the other, the Lachin corridor is mentioned, it should connect Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh. Questions arise here. What does the corridor mean? Is it all the Lachin District or just a part of it? There are very many uncertainties. It provokes different interpretations in Baku and Yerevan,” says Markedonov.He emphasized that the referendum results would reflect the interests of Yerevan in the context of the current status of Karabakh.Armenia proposed the participation of the Armenian community living in Karabakh in the peace process. Baku rejected this proposal, because it was not taking the interests of Azerbaijani refugees into account. Concerning the government of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Azerbaijan calls it absurd, because the republic has not been recognized by any country of the world. “A very important moment that Baku is sensitive about is the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh as a subject at the negotiations. But you see what the problem is: the future status would not concern the inhabitants of Razdan, Dilijan, Yerevan, Artashat. It will concern the people living there. It can certainly be ignored at the negotiations, but to what extent can Yerevan fully take the interests there, on the land, into account? The interests, as the practice of the 1990-2000s shows, do not always coincide,” Markedonov reflects.The expert remains steadfast that settlement of the conflict is in the hands of Baku and Yerevan: “Moscow or Washington cannot do that work, no matter how eager Baku and Yerevan are. Finding a formula of a pragmatic solution that Egypt and Israel found in their time, going through several wars, grave repercussions: and refugees, and exchange of populations, etc. But a compromise formula was found. I think that moment should become a priority.”Speaking about the negotiating process, Markedonov opined that the countries should concentrate on prevention of incidents hindering the negotiation process instead of swift searches for a final peace formula. “An escalation there, a helicopter there, an artillery attack there: it all contributes nothing to the atmosphere of a search for a peaceful solution,” the expert conclud
