By Vestnik Kavkaza
Summing up results of the year, the majority of experts admit that 2014 was one of the most difficult years in the Middle East in recent times. Several factors influenced the situation – from the strengthening of radicals in the region to unsettlement of the Palestinian issue.
Vitaly Naumkin, the Director of the Institute for Oriental Studies, says that the main trend is strengthening of radical extremist terrorist groups. He reminds that violence has become barbaric in the Middle East: “We could see it in the activities of Islamic State and other groups, Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria, and smaller groups which are connected with al-Qaeda or act independently.”
Naumkin is worried about the great number of hired guns and people who have come to fight from foreign countries from all over the world: “It has never been happening. For example, radicals from Tunisia and countries of Central Asia come to fight in Syria.” At the same time, the expert notes that natives of Chechnya, who are fighting in Syria, “have come not from modern Russia, but they have come from the Diaspora, European states, Georgia or Turkey. This is not good either, as their final goal is the North Caucasus, and we should be very attentive.”
A peculiar feature of the year for the Middle East were the statements on a crisis of nation states, a crisis of identity, according to Naumkin: “Arab countries have been living independently for a hundred years, strengthened their political independence, their national identity. We shouldn’t ignore the circumstance and use these words excessively. There should be no remaking of boundaries. I stand for stability and I think that the system should stay unchanged. However, there should be reformation of state structures in some countries. The current activity of the West cannot stabilize the situation. Islamic State cannot be defeated by air attacks and bombings by American Air Forces or missile attacks.”
Naumkin believes that “states and nations which now realize the necessity of fighting against terrorism are able to cope with the threat. I believe that Iraq will stay united if the Kurdish issue is settled in all countries where Kurds live today. In Iraq, where there is a high level of autonomy, and in Syria, in Iran, in Turkey, the Kurdish problem will always be relevant.”
The expert forecasts that Islamic State will be weakened, but “extremism, radicalism will continue for a long time. Probably al-Qaeda, which has great experience of survival in network structures, will show itself. Today al-Qaeda structures have paled into insignificance, but tomorrow they could come to the fore again. But in a context when the Israeli-Palestinian problem is not resolved and there is almost no hope that a Palestinian state is going to be established, it is difficult to say that the internal protest and frustration which people feel won’t be formed into such sharp forms that make people join Islamist groups.”
