Andrei Petrov exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
On January 3rd near-border and front-line Azerbaijani villages were shelled by large-caliber weapons and mortar-guns. After that, cases of breaking the ceasefire regime on the frontline between the Armenian and Azerbaijani armies became frequent. Last night the villages of Gyzylgadjily and Kemerli in the Gazakh Region were shelled. The region is situated on the border with Georgia, i.e. far away from the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
The breaking of the ceasefire regime is a normal practice these days, but previously the Armenian armed forces which occupy Nagorno-Karabakh and neighboring territories fired from automatic guns only. There was no mass shelling of non-military facilities from anti-armor mortar-guns since the active military operation in Karabakh.
It means the opponents of a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict intend to provoke the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan for similar or counter-measures and activities on the state Armenian-Azerbaijani border. That’s why the Gazakh Region in the northwest of the country was chosen, as it has never seen military activities for Karabakh. Any Azerbaijani bullet which gets on the territory of Armenia, rather than the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, will be used by the Armenian party of war, i.e. the ruling party, for preventing negotiations and preserving the status quo.
Moreover, as Armenia is a member of the CSTO, a successful provocation on the state border would create an opportunity for formal involvement of CSTO forces to protect Armenian territories.
At the same time, Yerevan would probably make only political statements on the issue, as it is not beneficial for it to have international witnesses of the developments on the border with Azerbaijan. Russian troops protect Armenia’s borders with Turkey and Iran, but not with Azerbaijan. The Armenian party of war improves its arsenal of provocations, makes them more direct and crude in their form. It means that in the very near future we should expect a more serious breaking of the ceasefire regime, i.e. almost a rejection by Armenia of the Bishkek Protocol.
Meanwhile, the international community didn’t react to the escalation of violence in the conflict zone. The world didn’t notice the explosion of bombs and threats to ordinary people’s lives on the frontline between the Azerbaijani and Armenian armies in the context of the New Year holidays. The American co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group, James Warlick, “worked” for the whole key mediating organization in the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement and made a short informal post on his Twitter page. At the moment, there is no official statement on the issue from the OSCE Minsk Group. Yesterday the U.S. Department of State expressed concerns about firing in the conflict zone, urging the sides to return to peaceful negotiations under the Minsk Group, which didn’t react to the firing at all.
That was the only reaction of the international community. It seems, despite the August escalation in the conflict zone, which led to a record-breaking number of deaths during the whole ceasefire regime, and the November helicopter attack on Azerbaijani positions, international players still believe that the intensified Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains “frozen.” However, the prospects of further provocations and even restoration of military activities in Karabakh demand the cancellation of “legal vacations” and focusing on the developments happening over Karabakh by the international community, first of all the Minsk Group.
This is not impossible. Modern history has examples of intensive mediation by international players in international and internal conflicts, which were expressed in effective diplomatic work, political and economic pressure on aggressors. The absence of a consolidated international reaction to the events over Karabakh not only delays a resolution of the conflict, but also encourages the aggressive and provocative policy of the occupants, i.e. the hot phase of the unfinished war, even though, according to statements of the international community, it doesn’t want a restoration of war.
