By Vestnik Kavkaza
After the death of King of Saudi Arabia Abdullah, his brother Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud took the throne. Together with the throne the new King inherited many problems which could lead to radical changes in the state.
Alexander Ignatenko, the president of the Institute of Religion and Policy, a member of the Council on Cooperation with Religious Unions under the Russian President, thinks that the situation in Saudi Arabia could develop into an Arab Spring. “The political system of Saudi Arabia has a serious disadvantage which becomes more and more significant with the evolution of the Middle East region. I mean Saudi Arabia is ruled by a dynasty which provides a course on preservation of the royal regime in Arabia. However, the monarchy and the king’s position are not required by Islam,” Ignatenko says, predicting “a triple revolution” in Saudi Arabia.
He points out three revolutionary directions.
First. A Shiah revolution which is combined with the separatist movement is already going on in eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia, where the oil fields of the kingdom are focused.
Second. Expansion of Islamic State to the territory of the Arab Peninsula.
Third. The Muslim Brotherhood movement is absolutely anti-monarchic. King Abdullah included the Muslim Brotherhood on a list of terrorist organizations in Saudi Arabia.
Alexander Kuznetsov, the deputy director of the Institute of Forecasting and Political Regulation, points out four challenges for the kingdom.
First challenge. It is Iranian-Saudi competition in the region, which can be characterized as a cold war for the last 3-4 years. The war is taking place in Lebanon, Bahrain, Iraq. In Syria it has a character of a hot war. Saudi Arabia believes that Iranian political influence in Iraq and Syria is a threat to its national interests. After the developments in Yemen, where the Houthi Shiah actually occupied the whole territory of Northern Yemen, the Saudis began to say that Iran was besieging them all around. It is unlikely that the Houthis in Yemen are an absolutely pro-Iranian force – the internal reasons for the Yemen crisis are much deeper – however, the Saudi elite prefer this point of view.
Second challenge. It is the growth of importance of extremist organizations. Islamic State relies on radical Wahabi extremist ideology in its activities. In Saudi Arabia there are people who support radical preachers, spreading their views and religious propaganda. If al-Qaeda’s influence grows in Yemen, it will establish threats to Saudi Arabia.
Third challenge. It is the falling world oil prices. Many analysts blamed Saudi Arabia for the process. There were various conspiracy theories that Saudi Arabia tried to punish Russia for its support of Bashar Assad in Syria or to drain American companies which extract shale gas. I think it is not that simple, as world oil prices were highly overstated. It was the fault of the international speculators and banks which serviced the deals. Moreover, supply surpassed demand significantly, so the process of price falling was natural.
Fourth challenge. It is significant disputes within Saudi-American relations. At the moment we can see the heaviest contradictions between the two countries since 1945, when the famous Quincy Pact was signed.
