By Vestnik Kavkaza
In recent days the Georgian mass media have been actively discussing the possibility of the resignation of the government and the holding of early parliamentary elections. “The former Premier wants to hold the parliamentary elections in October 2015 and is preparing a new party for them. A confidential source from the ruling circles stated about it. Georgian Dream has completed a revision of regional organizations by groups of four people. After an analysis of the party’s power in the regions, it will be decided whether it is beneficial for the coalition to hold early elections and whether Bidzina Ivanishvili, who plans to return to the party, is necessary save his team,” Rezonansi reports.
“According to the source, most of the coalition’s members stand against the early elections, as they fear that they won’t get into the parliament and so they don’t want to yield their mandates beforehand. At the moment, the announcement of the parliamentary elections is being discussed only. The source says that two ways are being considered – a censure motion on the government or people’s protests. “A legal mechanism is triple non-confidence of the government; and today the issue becomes topical, even if only one minister is changed. If the parliament doesn’t back the government three times, the president has to dismiss the parliament, according to the Constitution. The second option is to take people onto the streets. The reasons for this are inflation, social dissatisfaction, demands of reconstruction of justice,” the source says. In this case, the president should team up, but the coalition doesn’t hope for this,” the newspaper writes.
Kviris Palitra reports on the same topic. “The hopes of the authorities are being dispelled. The unprofessionalism of the leaders, wrong HR policy and shiftlessness are the reasons for this. We don’t know who the main person in the country is or who is responsible for the situation. The most paradoxical thing is that people still trust Ivanishvili. Apparently, a big part of society demands the return of Ivanishvili to power. If they don’t trust him, they won’t demand this. Georgia still believes that if Ivanishvili comes back the situation in the country will change,” the newspaper cites an expert, Mamuka Areshidze.
“I believe the agenda includes both changing the government and early parliamentary elections. It is demanded not only by society, but also by the authorities themselves. But it probably won’t happen. Ivanishvili said that people’s overwhelming trust in him had to be spread to the authorities, but it didn’t happen. The authorities distanced themselves from society’s demands. I think the statements on the government by Ivanishvili are strange. On the one hand, he praises the government and his leader; on the other hand, he says that ministers have problems with an unconstructive influence from a group of certain people. That’s how he treats the relatives of the prime minister. He simultaneously praised and criticized Garibashvili,” Areshidze thinks.
The press also paid attention to inspections of the Gulf company, which could lead to new accusations against the former Defense Minister David Kezerashvili.
“The financial police came to Gulf’s office. An investigation was initiated, according to article 218 of the Criminal Code – evasion of taxes on a large scale. Beka Kemularia, the head of the Consumer Rights Protection Society, stated that in 2011-2012 Gulf was the country's largest importer; but customs services didn’t register that the company imported such a huge amounts of goods at the border. If it is so, it turns out Gulf imported fuel illegally and could be hiding a big sum of money from the tax services,” Alia reports.
“However, this cannot be stated until the financial police deal with the details of the case. The police will probably have to hold the investigation abroad. If the fact of illegal import of goods by Gulf is confirmed, it will mean such facts were numerous. Beka Kemularia has the same point of view. Thus, criminal proceedings will be started against certain heads of Gulf, according to the provision 2 of article 214 of the Criminal Code – importing goods through the customs service of Georgia on a large scale. It is well-known that in 2011-2012 Gulf belonged to David Kezerashvili; and if Gulf had many times imported goods into the country illegally, he could be sentenced to prison for 7 years,” the newspaper says.
Georgian society is still concerned about the lari fluctuations. “There is no bottom to the devaluation of the lari. $1 equals 2.03 laris. Prices are growing on the consumer market. New panic is growing among the population. It is interesting that last January the National Bank of Georgia sold $220 million, and in February the lari began to strengthen. At the moment they are watching the fall idly,” Rezonansi reports. “Due to devaluation of the lari, two days ago the prime minister conducted a working meeting with the economic team. Society expected that after the meeting certain steps would be taken, which would stop the lari falling, if not strengthen it. However, after the meeting the lari fell deeper. The NBG doesn’t plan to intervene in the process or provide any intervention,” the periodical notes.
“Experts believe that due to the drastic devaluation of the national currency in December 2014, the law-enforcement agencies should find out the reasons for this, as there are suspicions that pressure was put on the national currency by speculators in that period. Carrying out intervention now is senseless. “It should be found out what happened with the national currency in December. The two-three-day speculation that took place at that moment. Today strict intervention won’t lead to anything good. The National Bank should intervene only to control devaluation for avoiding a rush. According to economic logic, the national currency won’t fall deeper. If devaluation continues, it will create a lot of problems,” the newspaper cites an expert, Gia Khukhashvili.
In this context, the problem of decreasing living standards appears; it is also touched on by the press. “Pensions will grow by 6.6% in September; but they have already depreciated by 13%. The purchasing power of the lari decreased by 13% as well. The consequences of the devaluation of the national currency influence the socially-unprotected population most of all, including pensioners,” Rezonansi reports.
“According to official information, in 2014 inflation in comparison with 2013 grew by 2%. However, statistics indicate that food and medicine prices grew by 15%. It means that the purchasing power of the lari and pensions decreased by 13%. It means pensions “lost” 20 laris,” the periodical says.
“If the tendencies remain, it will worsen pensioners’ positions. The main reason is that the Georgian economy depends on exogenous factors. Fluctuations of the lari negatively influence inflation expectations and cause a growth of prices for goods,” a statistician Soso Archvadze says. He thinks that prices are growing not due to rising costs of imported goods, but because retailers try to include a so-called margin of safety into the price – they protect themselves from the falling lari.
“The devaluation of the national currency wouldn’t be a problem for a country in which the economy is developing rapidly and the population’s incomes are growing. In Georgia the falling lari makes the poor population even poorer,” Rezonansi writes.
