By Vestnik Kavkaza
Alexander Danilyuk, the head of the Defense Reform Center of Ukraine, an advisor to the defense minister, has proposed the formation of a NATO analogue under the auspices of Kiev, consolidating Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, then Belarus, Armenia and Kazakhstan. Moscow has started debates about Moldova’s readiness to join the EaEU.
Vladimir Lepekhin, the director of the EurAsEC Institute, considers the political need of Russia for Moldova in the integration project in the light of the Transnistria situation. In his words, the catastrophic situation for the Russian-speaking population in Moldova and Transnistria went downhill because Ukraine had been friendly and Moldova could be regarded as an element of the Eurasian space. Modern Ukraine is hostile towards Russia and the territory of Transnistria appears to be in an economic blockade.
“A mass of problems arises. How will Moldovan energy develop in a situation when transit throughout Ukraine is unfavourable for Russian energy carriers, the transit may stop by the 2019. Moldova loses the key, basic element of its economy. Problems arise in the exports of agricultural products. Maybe migrant workers will remain the main source of income,” speculates Lepekhin.
The expert predicts that the authorities of Moldova would align with European integration: “Steps would be taken to make Moldovan citizens visit Europe more, instead of Russia.”
According to the director of the EurAsEC Institute, the path towards Eurasian integration lies through politics: “There is no other way, a political struggle is necessary. Greece can be an example of such struggle for Moldova. We can learn from the mistakes of Greece, we see how Greece’s subjection to the European Union was going, the economy of Greece was being destroyed, it was being turned into a global European debtor. Nonetheless, the Greeks have found the power to consolidate left-wing parties, supported SYRIZA and they are opening prospects for change in the situation.”
In Lepekhin’s words, the majority of Moldova supports Eurasian integration, but political elites would pursue a completely different policy, so a more serious political fight and consolidation should be expected.
Rostislav Ishchenko, the president of the Center for Systemic Analysis and Forecasting, considers the chances of Moldova’s integration into the Eurasian Union to be quite high: “Moldova today has three basic identities: Romanian, Moldovan and Slavic, which can conventionally be called Russian. And the political forces orient towards the identities. In sum, the Moldovan and Russian identity dominates. The majority would be inclined towards the Eurasian Union and Russia, because it would simply fade, should the Romanian identity win.”
According to his information, Romania is trying to annex Moldova, and pro-Romanian parties of Moldova are more focused on helping Romania absorb the country than joining the EU as an independent state.
Speaking of pro-Eurasian forces in Moldova, Ishchenko opined that the Communist Party had been representing the population before a similar outcome, though not as tragic as during Yanukovych’s rule in Ukraine, happened. “In other words, it was elected by votes of one population, then it started an absolutely contrary policy, conventionally speaking, a multi-vector policy. In other words, we do not go there, we do not go here, we sit and keep our little independent principality, and it would be nice if everyone maintained us. At some stage, pursuing this policy became impossible. As a result, a serious political crisis erupted in Moldova, continuing until this very moment,” explains the expert.
According to Ishchenko, the Socialist Party of Moldova took the Russian-Moldovan spot: “It had an immediate effect on its political prospects, because formally independent, yet socialist-supported candidate for the bashkan of Gagauzia, Irina Vlah is the most likely candidate for victory. Socialists are in the opposition indeed, they have recently become the largest party in the parliament of Moldova. It means that such a political force is needed.”
The expert considers the switch of Russia’s support from communists to socialists obvious: “Just recently, the factions and authorities of the party have had meetings with the patriarch and with Sergey Naryshkin. These are absolutely clear political signals. There is political demand, there is a political proposal, there is external support. Then it is only a matter of sequence and potential of technical realization. The only serious problem before the political forces standing for Eurasian integration in Moldova is limited time. Because Moldova turned out to be on a strip between two regions of catastrophe: the ending catastrophe in Ukraine and the starting catastrophe in the EU. Clearly, this cannot leave the economic and political prospects of Moldova unaffected. Russia is too far away still.”
