By Vestnik Kavkaza
On March 5, 2015 Baku will host a meeting of the Special Working Group on the issues of the Caspian Sea, where the development of a draft agreement on economic cooperation between the Caspian states will be discussed. According to a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies, Stanislav Pritchin, the first meeting after the summit in Astrakhan will actually lay the foundations, which will be discussed in a year and a half in Astana. The work on fulfilling the agreements has been started now, which will be considered by the Presidents.”
There is an ambitious task: to reach and sign a Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea. “This task is very difficult to achieve, in that we do not see any breakthrough on the territorial issues. Therefore, first of all, Caspian dialogue in recent years has been an attempt at solving the most acute problems, including security issues, economic issues,” Pritchin thinks.
“Just a few months ago the Iran-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan railroad started working, which in general connects with Russia. The east wing of the multimodal transport route North-South is actually implemented. The question of the Western route through Azerbaijan, which will link Iran and Russia, still remains. In general, attempts to solve the transportation issues are complete, the creation of a common infrastructure is being implemented,” the expert says.
Pritchin believes that active negotiations over Iran's nuclear program and Iran's focus on the development of economic cooperation with its northern neighbors play into the hands of construction: “We see this in the activity of Iranian diplomacy, the president's travels. Over the past year he has visited virtually all the Caspian countries: he was in Azerbaijan, he was in Kazakhstan, he was in Russia. Accordingly, taking into account the huge 80-million-strong economy of Iran, if it really decides to unfold in the north, it will provide a serious impetus to the development of the economy in the region. The question is how much the countries in the region are ready for such a turn and fill this cooperation with real content.”
According to Pritchin, foreign players are trying to play on disagreements between the Caspian states, first of all in relation to energy issues: “The creation of the Energy Union by the European Union that was announced implies the signing of a memorandum of understanding around the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline this year. There are a lot of questions about the reality of implementing the construction of the pipeline. From the point of view of unity and in terms of solutions of regional problems, rather, it is a bone of contention between the Caspian states; and on this issue a consolidated and common position of the Caspian states could eliminate excessive competition for the EU markets.”
Speaking about the issues that the Caspian states are facing now, Pritchin mentioned the difficult situation on the Afghan-Turkmenistan border: “The 760 km zone is basically desert area with a small population, and there is an activation of Islamic State and extremist groups in northern Afghanistan, which are a very serious threat to Turkmenistan. Taking into account the neutral status of the Republic, it is very difficult to ensure the security of the southern borders of Turkmenistan through international cooperation mechanisms. Accordingly, through the Caspian dialogue, through the agreements that we have, there could be real content and possible involvement of the Caspian states to secure the region is possible.”
