By Vestnik Kavkaza
In recent years, Central Asia has been strongly influenced by regional and external forces. According to experts, among them are not only the leading world powers such as Russia, China and the US, but also terrorist organizations, drug cartels and criminal organizations which, unlike state entities, are mobile, have no boundaries, nationalities or international obligations, thus creating horizontal and vertical links between themselves.
According to Andrey Kazantsev, Director of the Analytical Center at Moscow State Institute of International Relations under the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, all Central Asian countries are pursuing a multi-vector policy. This means that they are ready to have friendly relations and at the same time keep their distance evenly in regard to the great superpowers. He adds: "None of the Central Asian countries want to give away their "controlling interest" to anyone. This is just a matter of receiving assistance. If you give away your "controlling interest", you limit the opportunity of receiving assistance from all other areas and parties."
From Andrey Kazantsev’s perspective, this positive trend is causing some difficulties primarily for Moscow’s policy. «It’s very difficult to make the right decision in such a multi-vector situation». In the course of voting on the Ukraine problem at the UN, even countries, that are allies of Russia within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization which is a military alliance, behaved unlike Russia and chose to abstain on voting like China. That is why many global players are beginning to pay more attention to this region.
Kazantsev mentioned that the situation is changing from time to time: «The West has weakened its interest in regard to the Central Asian countries. It may be increased in the future but for now it remains at a low level. This has happened because the current US leadership plans on leaving Afghanistan, and Central Asia is vital to them in this respect. So far as the US is concerned, the fading background of Central Asia is now linked with the Ukrainian problem and with the US-Russian standoff in post-Soviet territories.
Kazantsev points out that the EU is going to increase its attention in Central Asia but it is more likely due to the fact that Latvia now holds the EU presidency.
We are talking about a "northern supply network" – a system of road, railway and airway routes for the transportation of goods across the territory of Central Asia by American and NATO troops from a Latvian port in Riga to Afghanistan.
This northern route goes through a Latvian military port so that is why they want to transform into a commercial one. The main thing here is commercial interest at a time of an economic crisis. "I don’t think that Latvia will be able to do anything more with the help of the EU. This said, the EU still has its fears in regard to the region, including problems connected with democracy in Central Asia which go against EU values," concludes Kazantsev.
