The intermediaries are trying to decide whether the situation should be moved from deadlock or not
An OSCE summit will take place in Astana in December. Many political scientists believe that a document over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may be adopted at the summit. Nevertheless, VK editor-in-chief Alexei Vlasov believes that no innovative decisions are likely to be ready by the summit. The incumbent OSCE chairman, Kanat Saudabayev, tried to promote the idea of a conflict settlement road-map for the Caucasus, but the initiative of Kazakhstan hasn’t brought about any substantial consequences, the expert said. He also mentioned that the topics of economic security, national minorities and OSCE reform will be priorities at the summit. The above-mentioned reform will be aimed at development of a more dynamic and effective reaction from the organisation to new risks and challenges.
However, Vlasov believes that the situation may change with the certain convergence of circumstances in 2011. The Karabakh conflict settlement intermediaries understand that public discontent in Azerbaijan is growing and that the talks on Nagorno-Karabakh will be resumed in 2011. Time will tell whether such rumours will prove to be correct and if the intermediaries will manage to persuade Yerevan of the necessity of such steps.
At the moment intermediaries such as Russia, and peripheral players such as Turkey, are trying to decide whether the situation should be moved from deadlock or not. The course of developments around Iran will influence any decision greatly. If the US government decides to resolve the Iranian issue in 2011, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue will remain in the virtual sphere. If everything dwindles down to diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran and the world powers decide to demonstrate their capability of resolving the problems via negotiations, then we may see Yerevan making some concessions by the end of 2011, Vlasov said.
The expert also said that the influence of Turkey on the conflict shouldn’t be overestimated, taking into consideration the internal divisions of the country. The Turkish authorities have not yet clarified their foreign policy direction. It is because of this that the Armenian issue is being linked with the broader context of Turkey's expected role in the South Caucasus, Central Asia and Caspian regions. Turkey prefers the route of strategic decisions without announcing its strategy. So the opportunities for pressure on Armenia are limited, Vlasov said. He also emphasized that changes in negotiating structure and format are not to be expected in the near future. The process will probably take a lot of time and it will eventually turn out that certain decisions won’t be made in the near future.
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan flared up in 1988 because of Armenia’s territorial claims on some Azerbaijani territories. 20% of Azerbaijani territories (including Nagorno-Karabakh and some adjacent territories) were occupied by Armenian armed forces. Ever since the parties reached agreement on a ceasefire, in May 1994, fruitless negotiations have been conducted under the aegis of the OSCE Minsk Group, co-chaired by Russia, France and the USA. The four UN Security Council resolutions on the deoccupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and the adjacent territories have still not been fulfilled by Armenia.
Gafar Azimov, AZE.az
