Recently the round table “XX years of Armenia independency: on the way to development of Armenian-Russian relations” took place. The editor-in-chief of VK Aleksey Vlasov, the deputy head of the Information and Analysis Centre of MSU Ismail Agakishiyev and the research scientist of the Institute of Political and Social Research of the Black and Caspian Seas region Andrey Areshev expressed their views on prospects of Russian-Armenian relations and possible integration projects in the South Caucasus.
Aleksey Vlasov, the editor-in-chief of VK
Our countries are partners in the South Caucasus region. In the former Soviet Union space, in general, Russia has few allies. I understand that Russia is important for Armenia in the sphere of strategic and military-political presence in the region, as well as Armenia being important for Russia. The strength of our relationship influences the future of the whole region. I cannot forecast all the possible scenarios of the development of the situation in the South Caucasus. By the way, in late October special arrangements will take place, organized by our agency together with experts of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and the regions of the North Caucasus, and we will speak about new trends in the region’s development.
The economic forum in the Polish town of Krynnitsa showed an interesting tendency. It was the first time that Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan discussed integration in a trilateral format. Two-three years ago it was impossible. I felt lonely, as Armenians, Azerbaijanis and Georgians spoke about similar things. However, they were representatives of the opposition, they didn’t express the official views of Baku or Yerevan. Only the Georgian delegation was headed by the president of the country. Moreover, a specific economic plan and the social integration of districts, which are close to borders of the three republics, was presented. Of course, this plan should have the financial support of extra-regional players. I understand that, even though the forum was held by the EU, they meant a US project, and it is not accidental that Georgia was the main lobbyist. I told my South Caucasus colleagues that it is very good they’ve managed to find contact points. Unfortunately, these contact points found expression in having a common enemy against whom they consolidated. From their point of view, Russia is such enemy for them.
We can develop integration projects, considering the absence of opportunities, and in this case the strengthening of any foreign player will occur, if it proposes Armenia and Azerbaijan a way to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, even though it won’t be effective. Or we can act within the win-win strategy, when you don't gain strength from weakening your rival, but due to contact points, which enable the strengthening of one player because of the parallel strengthening of its opponent. Business strategies applied to political affairs are the only way to implement things in the South Caucasus.
Ismail Agakishiyev, the deputy head of the Information and Analysis Centre of MSU:
When I read lectures and teach students, I always ask what sphere they want to specialize in. They learn international affairs. The USA? Of course! Europe? Perfect! The territory of the former Soviet Union, the Baltic Sea region? Excellent! Ukraine, Kazakhstan? Good! When I try to suggest the Caucasus, faces get dull. I have to convince people that it is interesting. Due to our work in the department of the former Soviet Union space at the Russian State University of the Humanities we managed to encourage an Azerbaijani girl to study the Armenian language. Her tutor is from Yerevan.
About 20 years ago, when these problems began to appear, we lived in an MSU dormitory and there were people of various origins. One of them used to be the Premier of Armenia, and when he came to Baku he found time to meet his coursemates.
When we met here we thought this problem could be solved only by our generation, as we have many things in common, not only 1988. And now some experts say that there will be no peace in this region, that we will never learn to understand one another.
I agree that integration of the rivals is impossible. But I understand that the South Caucasus is a competitor for Europe, but not for Russia. When we speak about integration, we mean that it is impossible without Russia and the Russian market.
One of the greatest minds said that being determines consciousness. And the basis is primary. 20 years have passed, and we still, both Armenians and Azerbaijanis, continue to be surprised by great minds of the past. I’m sure if there were no such political problem, the South Caucasus could be the most prosperous region in the former Soviet Union space.
Today, many Armenians and Azerbaijanis do not live in their motherland. The problem is the economy. We do not pay serious attention to it. A country that can invest and develop the economy not only within its boundaries, but also beyond them, has a shallow attitude to the problem. I’m glad that such a strong politician has come to office, but I wish Russia, which is the motherland for all of us, not only relied on oil and gas resources, but also established real industry and investment projects. I believe the problem cannot be settled without Russia’s help, but only if it has a serious attitude. And I want us to live in our motherland, and not in Kolyma, and look at each other calmly and amicably, as our grandfathers did. That’s how our children should look at each other.
Andrey Areshev, the research scientist of the Institute of Political and Social Research of the Black and Caspian Seas region
I would like to note that the problem of integration of the South Caucasus states in the context of the European direction have been discussed in the 90s and the early 2000s at the level of non-governmental organizations and experts. These discussions were very interesting and were formalized in some periodicals. However, they were closed, because financing of the project was shut down. We cannot say why it happened. I think that all these discussions couldn’t answer one principle question, if integration is being carried out not within the former Soviet Union space, why is this integration needed? What can the South Caucasian states offer each other? Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia. No clear answers were given.
Today we are witnessing a second wave of interest in the Caucasus from Western society, the EU and the USA. It isn’t a surprise that these discussions have been revived. Not only the discussions, but also active diplomatic contacts have been revived. Several days ago the president of Armenia visited Paris, and on October 6th Nicolas Sarkozy will visit the capitals of the South Caucasus states, including Yerevan. I don’t remember such frequent mutual visits between top representatives of countries.
As for Russian-Armenian relations, I would like to draw your attention to the military aspect of security, the military aspect of the relations. This is admitted by the Armenian side too. Arslan Ashotovich quoted the speech by Armenia’s President. Of course, there are some problems in the economy, but these problems are the consequences of a general situation in the former Soviet space in the sphere of economic relations. We can see what is happening between Russia and Ukraine. Central Asia has problems as well. As for Armenia, the only major economic facility, which doesn’t belong to Russia yet, is the Vorotan hydroelectric power station. If mistakes similar to some unsuccessful projects of Russian-Armenian relations are made, serious damage can be caused.
Some certain groups use facebook and other social networks for conducting their strange actions. The actions are strange in the context of Russian-Armenian relations and in the context of development of the Armenian statehood. For example, they claim that the resettlement programme is implemented by Rossotrudnichestvo and some structures of Armenia, but they forget about similar resettlement programmes carried out by the US and the European Union. Such a policy of double standards gains nothing positive for Armenia with its difficult social and economic situation and migration problems.
In the context of Russian-Armenian relations, I would like to mention a new game, which is called the revival of the Armenian-Turkish negotiations. This process can be launched. It is not yet clear in what format. However, it is obvious that Armenian-Turkish relations will be used as leverage for certain groups in Turkey and Armenia by foreign forces to destabilize Russian-Armenian relations. If it is announced that Yerevan and Ankara are close to signing some new agreements and are ready for certain steps, the question arises: why is a Russian border patrol needed there. The question of the reasonableness of the military base in Gyumri appears. The political importance of the South Caucasus will grow, and following the Middle East it will become a place of competition between various centers of power. First of all, it will be the US and the EU, also Russia, which has its own interests, and regional powers Iran and Turkey. Moreover, there's a new player, China. China’s major interests are concentrated in Central Asia, but the South Caucasus is connected with Central Asia through transport and military transport. So Russian-Armenian relations are still crucial for stability and security in the region. They prevent negative scenarios, which do not meet the interests of Russia and Armenia.
VK.
