At the round table discussion on "The ethnic composition of Russia: transformation and challenges" experts viewed problems of Eurasian space.
Yuri Golubchikov, a leading researcher of the Department of Recreation and Tourism of the Faculty of Geography of the Moscow State University
I personally see the threat of elimination of the Russian ethnos. It has been reduced by 13 million, at least by 13 million. I made a chart which includes all the data on the decreases in ethnic population in Russia and CIS. I got the total amount - 13 million people. For Russia, statistically – it is 4 million. But, again, this is according to the census of 2002. It is very disturbing and embarrassing that the census of 2010 did not specify the ethnic composition of Russia. We do not know how many Russians there are. Until 2012, that is, before the elections to the Duma and presidential elections, the ethnic composition will be unclear.
There has never been such secrecy before, It is associated with an even more rapid extinction of the Russian people. The whole history of Russia from 1390 to 1992 was characterized by a stable parameter. The story was controversial, but the setting was the same: a steady increase in the number of Russian people with a steady increase in the halo of its settlement, in the area of its distribution. It was very stable.
There are many arguments saying that we have lost 23 million people in the Civil War. But there was a census! The census of 1897 shows there were 55 million Russians. There is a census of 1926 pointing to 75 million Russians, despite the Civil War. It is a separate issue, that during the Civil War the noblest, the most aristocratic representatives of the Russian people were killed. But, in general, the numbers grew. The increase was particularly strong in the central regions: in Pskov, and other central Russian regions. In 1939 there were 100 million Russians, in 1979 - 113 millions and in 1989 - 118, and now we are sharing the losses ... We are 115 million in Russia. Yet, in 1979 there were 137 million Russians in the whole Soviet Union and 144 million – in 1989, but now within the boundaries of the former USSR – there is only 131 million, the decline is 13 million.
Every year, I calculate new data, which can be obtained through various polls. I have only the data of 2001 and 2002 for Ukraine. In Ukraine, there was no census, while our composition has been classified which is as I repeat a cause for concerns.
Particularly rapidly is extincting the authentic Russian village. There is a 2% mortality rate in Pskov and Novgorod regions, 1.9% mortality rate - in Tver and Ivanovo regions, 1.8% - in Tula. We are dying out at the rate of two percent per year. These numbers can be compared with the least developed African countries. This can be compared with Mali, Guinea which holds the record of 2,4% percent, while we have - 2%.
Of course, the population is increasing in some places, and it will probably be talked about today. During this time, in some regions there was a population growth - in the Khanty-Mansiysk, etc. But I'm talking about the weakest chain and the destruction of the geopolitical core of the Russian people in these areas.
Yuri Gromyko, the head of the Schiffer's Institute for Advanced Studies
There is a prospective connected with the changing of the type of war. There is a point of view that if you can change an identity, it is not necessary to capture the territory, because if a person is changing identity, which dramatically shrinks and changes and people take oath to other powers, then why conquer the territory? People just start serving the new government. In this regard, I would support the colleague in the following point.
In my opinion, what is happening in the Russian school is terrible, because it is well-known that with the destruction and disappearance of the rural school disappears the whole settlement. There is a well-known, geographers would know, so-called Leyzerovich's grid, which is continually shrinking and is flattened at the moment. One can indicate two successful regions. This is Tatarstan, where everybody says that, Shaimiev, Babai so to speak, was so great as to preserve the village school and the village with it. And the genius Savchenko in Belgorod. Considering other issues, if we look at Tver, there is only collapse and destruction of the space.
The second point. We discuss the sprawling Moscow. Architects, urban planners, who actually build cites, small or large, say, that the unfolding space will be able to suck 300 million in itself. We are, in my opinion, in the situation of paying for the clotting of civilizational conditions previously established by the Russians. Therefore, everyone is drawn to the benefits. But if there is no special purpose program line, Moscow will devour these 300 million, I do not know whether it will be a good existence then - I personally doubt it.
The development of the Russian lands, especially the North-East and the Far East starting from the Urals - a cardinal principle challenge. But no less a challenge is Central Asia. Why? Because of these flows and the flight of these people, which we cannot stop. I would say here that, in my opinion, the time of the so-called politically declared "model of effective political manager," which has been announced more than once, where the in the first place are momentary, short gains has ended. The civilizational circumstance, forms of mobilized land development are, of course, based on calculations of economic literacy. But initially, the goals of strategic objectives on the models for the expansion of lands and their implementation are primarily important. If we look at some realities of the foreign policy, for example, the Customs Union. Today, it is based on the classic type of a marriage contract, as if a loving or not loving couple is discussing in advance: "God forbid, we divorce, will I take a fridge?" – says the spouse. From this point of view, no fundamental mission of space exploration is proposed. We did not hear Nazarbayev's initiative on the creation of a new currency, we have not heard about the idea of creating a transcontinental transport corridor between China and Russia via Kazakhstan. From this point of view, large-scale infrastructure projects related to the development of space, omitted or ignored specifically, is another matter. I would like to draw attention to the following: in my opinion, the situation of the progressing financial crisis, is a very opportune moment to unite the post-Soviet territories and propose completely new initiatives, while the EU is busy with its debts and the problem of collapse, Americans continue to print dollars, without leaving their efforts in Turkmenistan, and the drug trafficking in Afghanistan is increasing. From this point of view, it is time to look over the entire territory and introduce entirely new initiatives.
Vyacheslav Beldei, the director of the Institute of Federalism
One gets a sense of conformity in the sense of uncertainty, expectations of the coming years of hardship, and of the understanding that the crisis has a clear ideological dimension. That feeling of instability, including ethnic and political character, which is observed in the world and the Middle East, as well as North Africa, Europe and America, has been present since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the global crisis of identity in Eurasia. This crisis happened at the level of ethnic groups, languages, cultures, although, of course, it was based on political and economic resources, as well as their lack in the societies. For Russia, this is a non-specific type of crisis. As a cooperative, collecting empire, Russia has always provided the people and elites of the states that had acceded to it by different means, economic, cultural and educational space –joint cultural activities. The identity crisis is going on today. First, very often small nations, both external and internal to the Russian people are building their identities based on the critique of all things Russian, because allegedly there is, or rather in reality took place a process of devaluation and decay, destruction of the human, social, educational, infrastructural, commercial legacy that was left of the Soviet Union, but there is no other basis for the construction of identity. On the other hand, the Russian people have the same problem. They are compounded by the imposition of Western models of simplified world view and behavior. In my opinion, one of the ways to restore the Russian Eurasian identity is to render mistakes and get rid of the inferiority complex of the Russian people. We must return to attractive humanistic historical socio-cultural standards. Just by replacing these standards with Western models of popular culture, mass television ... They should exist, but not replace the Russian standards.
