Roman Vilfant, Head of the Russian Meteorological Office:
When will real spring come? In meteorological terms, the latitude area within 55-600 experiences natural spring in late March. It is connected with the fact that sunbeams accumulate serious energy in this period, and the energy can be felt. Moreover, on March 22-23 we have a day of vernal equinox. On March 23rd the world celebrates International Day of Meteorology, and of course spring is associated with this event. There are certain climate specificities for each region. For example, melting of snow. This characteristic means that at least 30% of territories are uncovered. For Moscow a date of snow melting is 18-20 of March. Turning of daily average temperature to higher than zero will take place on March 25-28. Loss of snow cover in forests and suburbs of the Moscow Region will take place on April 5-8. It is clear that all these features… These days birds usually come back from south. At this period rotting of ice begins. All these characteristics and results of meteorological research show that spring will come only in late March or early April. Few words about the situation connected with winter crops. It is an important question, and it is often asked. Winter has passed. In early March our experts made an analysis, and it is rather satisfactory. First of all, moisture content of soil is sufficient in the whole European territory of Russia, i.e. in the main agricultural territory of our country. Moreover, they are sufficient in Ural and Western Siberia, where weather conditions enable providing intensive agriculture. Lack of moisture is registered in the eastern part of the Stavropol Territory and Kalmykia. I can give you figures. 140-190 cm – productive moisture, i.e. moisture content in 1 m of soil. It is a favorable condition for future harvest. Winter crops went through winter safely, despite severe conditions in the second half of winter and very warm conditions in the first half of winter. All vegetation phases of winter crops underwent successfully. And thinned spaces are connected with the following aspect: 50% of winter crops die. The thinned space is small this year, it is by 20-30% smaller than in previous 5 years. Thus, the conditions are favorable, especially in the Volga Federal District. And it is good, as it is our main agricultural region. And I would like to say about prospects of floods. We have already defined some characteristics for a small area: south and the center of the European territory of the country. The Meteorological Office predicts that the maximum level of floods in the European part of the country, on the Upper Dnepr, on the Desna, on the Don, will be lower than usually. We don’t predict hard floods in the center. I repeat this prediction is very narrow, full information will be published later. Water capacity of snow, soil freezing and other characteristics lead us to the conclusion that on the Oka and near it and on the majority of rivers of the trans-Volga region the level of floods will be higher than usually.
