Lyudmila Sergeyeva, Alexei Balashov. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Today is the fifth anniversary of the beginning of the five-day war in South Ossetia. In five years, the attitude of Russians to the war and its results have changed, indicate surveys by Levada-Center.
Right after the then-president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, signed an order on recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and establishing diplomatic relations with them, the estimation of these entities seriously changed in the Russian society. In 2006 22% of respondents called Abkhazia a part of Georgia, while in 2009 their number decreased to 9%: today it is 10%. 28% call the republic a part of Russia, while 48% state that it is an independent state. After recognition of the republic, the number of those who support this point of view increased two-fold (from 21% in 2006 to 52% in 2009). The same tendency is about South Ossetia.
In five years the number of Russian citizens who think that South Ossetia and Abkhazia should be a part of Russia decreased by 10% (from 46% in 2008 to 35% in 2012 for South Ossetia and from 35% in 2009 to 24% in 2013 for Abkhazia). So, the number of people who think that Tskhinval and Sukhumi should be independent increased in direct ratio.
In the past two years, the number of Russian citizens who think that the republics should be independent entities decreased. This is caused by a reduction of broadcasts on the topic in the mass media, as well as by Russia’s financial support for the republics.
It is interesting that residents of the Central and the North Caucasus Federal Districts estimate the consequences of recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia for Russia in general. In Central Russia 57% of people think that this foreign political step was favorable for the country, but in the North Caucasus there are only 35%. Recognition of independence of the republics is thought to be negative by 23% of residents of the CFD and 42% of residents of the NCFD. It seems Russians in the regions which are distant from Abkhazia and South Ossetia are ready to “break up” with them easily.
In Russia the level of interest to foreign political news is high. At the moment the number of those who are concerned about international recognition of Abkhazia’s independence is 91%.
In this context it is notable that there is a slight difference in answers of those who follow the topic in Internet and those who don’t use it for gathering information (the number of those who use Internet and think that Abkhazia and South Ossetia should be independent is higher by 7-8%). It is explained by deeper awareness of the international situation in the Caucasus of Internet users.
During the year certain warming in relations is taking place not between Georgia and its former autonomies, but between Moscow and Tbilisi. From this point of view it is interesting how perception of the situation over independence of Sukhumi and Tskhinvali by Russian citizens will change. The deputy director of Levada-Center Alexei Grazhdankin says that if the tendency of Russian-Georgian approaching maintains, the Russian public attitude can change, following the position of the central authorities.
“However, Russia won’t change its position on recognition of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Serious normalization of relations is hardly possible without this in the context when Russia has an opportunity to interfere with policy of partially recognized states. It seems the number of those who support independence of the republics will increase,” the sociologist concludes.
