Anton Bredikhin: "Russia does not want a repeat of Armenia-Azerbaijan war"

Two years after Azerbaijan's victory in the Karabakh war, the process of the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement has come to the stage when all preliminary preparations have been completed and it is necessary to begin the practical implementation of all the agreed provisions of interstate documents. This includes the signing of a peace treaty, and the border delimitation, and the opening of communications. The full implementation of the starting document - the Trilateral Statement of the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia dated November 9-10, 2020 is equally important, namely the withdrawal of Armenian militants from the Karabakh economic region of the Republic of Azerbaijan according to point 4 of this Statemnet. So far, none of this has happened because of Yerevan's passive-aggressive position, which does not want to normalize relations with Baku. In this regard, there is a growth in Russia's role as the most effective mediator in the post-war processes, the side, which is able to influence Armenia and interested in the peaceful South Caucasus.

Vestnik Kavkaza talked to Anton Bredikhin, scientific director of the Center for Ethnic and International Studies of the Russian Federation, about Russias position on the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement.

- Anton Viktorovich, in your opinion, how much is Russia currently committed to a full-fledged normalization of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations?

- Since the very end of the Karabakh war in 2020, Russia was not only committed to normalization, but acted as the most active mediator and participant in the process of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations' stabilization. The fact is that Russia absolutely does not need either a new war in the South Caucasus or any conflict in this region. Russia is maximally interested in a full-fledged, normal peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and economic cooperation, which is even better.

- Are there any forces in Russia that benefit from the ongoing confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

- If we talk about organized structures, I don't know about such forces. Of course, there are a number of individuals who speculate on the Armenian-Azerbaijani issue and seek to maintain the new status quo or even spark a confrontation. But I don't think it's worth talking about the fact that any major political force or organization can benefit from such a confrontation between our allies.

- What threats does the preservation of the confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia bring to Russia?

- I think that if the confrontation persists, and even more if it escalates, a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is inevitable. Russia knows what such wars lead to, because the country witnessed the previous Armenian-Azerbaijani war, and in the future it would not like to see this scenario repeated in the South Caucasus. Therefore, Russia will do its best to prevent it.

- How annoying is the state of affairs in the Lachin corridor, where foreigners enter the Karabakh economic region and weapons are brought into the Karabakh economic region, for relations between Azerbaijan and Russia now?

- Of course, this contributes to the tension of the situation. Control over transport routes must be ensured unconditionally. To do this, it is necessary to strengthen Russia's activity and role, in particular, so that a number of corridors are under the control of the Russian Federal Security Service border troops.

- What risks does the delay in the Karabakh issue in general pose for relations between Moscow and Baku?

- Strengthening allied relations are needed to reduce risks. It is not for nothing that a joint declaration was signed in February this year. It regulates the interaction between Russia and Azerbaijan in all areas, including on the issue of the Karabakh economic region. Those negative aspects that we see do not reflect Russia's true position. For example, Ruben Vardanyan, who moved to Khankendi, publicly renounced Russian citizenship. And Russia does not need a conflict between its allies, it needs peace in the region. Accordingly, the Russian state does not intend to escalate the situation.