Josef Tsiskarishvili: "The results of elections in Georgia depend on coefficient of their fairness"

Today Georgia is holding the parliamentary elections, which will determine the future of the country for the next four years. Political scientist Josef Tsiskarishvili discussed the parties that participate in the elections and their most likely outcome in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza.

- How did the situation in Georgia change over the past four years? What can you tell about today's balance of political forces?

- To describe the situation in one sentence, it is an old formula: the situation could be better, but there is nothing to complain about. One way or another, we found out that it better is not always good. Yes, life is better, but only the ruling party can say that the majority of Georgian population is satisfied with what happened over past four years. Of course, we can see that the progress is being made in various directions, but there were also significant failures, which were not a catalyst for the development of Georgia in terms of democracy and economy. Yes, now people are very important for the state, while the previous government's attitude towards its own citizens was absolutely unacceptable. However, it is still not enough: 4 years ago we were promised that justice will be restored, and its absence is perceived by people as a serious mistake.

- What did the UNM go through over the past four years? What are its results as an oppositional party before the elections?

- Again, to express it in one sentence - "you can't teach an old dog new tricks". Constant aggressive desire to return to power was the biggest desire of the 'United National Movement' every day for the past four years. The party itself made some progress, new faces appeared, but none of the member of this political group did not say the word "guilt". They don't admit that they are to blame for what happened in 9 years of their leadership. They only talk about "mistakes", but even while admitting mistakes they don't focus on the meaning of this word. No one know what specific mistakes does the UNM mean.

In this connection, this party still can't be accepted by most Georgian voters. The fact remains: the UNM is clearly controlled by the citizen of Ukraine, the governor of Odessa region. I recall that a huge rally was announced a few days ago. People from all across Georgia were gathered in the center of Tbilisi and the governor of Odessa region appeared on a huge screen with his ideas, already forgotten in Georgia, and belief that on October 9 he will once again rule the republic. Perhaps it will please someone in Ukraine, but for Georgia residents this topic is not serious and simply can't be implemented. On the other hand, the image of Saakashvili hinders any successes of the 'Georgian Dream'. These two parties spent past 4 years in the parliament constantly arguing, sessions of the parliament often ended with swearing and even fights. I want to remind you what Winston Churchill said to future generations: "When there is a dispute between the present and the past, we suddenly find out that we have lost the future." Unfortunately, this parliament was busy with mutual threats, there was almost no discussion about the future. 

- What can you tell about the 'Georgian Dream'?

- The most significant thing that must be noted is that Georgian people understand that the concept of "georgian dream" does not coincide with the concept of Bidzina Ivanishvili's 'Georgian Dream'. It was the same thing, but in the past 3 years, when Ivanishvili started to call himself an ordinary citizen of Georgia, he continued to interfere in all affairs: political, economic, social, and it became clear that this "dream" is not exactly Georgian. Today he oversees personnel in the Georgian government, and no minister, deputy minister, governor or member of the parliament can dissociate himself from the negative statements about him. There is still no freedom in the parliament, it mostly consists of "Georgian Dream" members. Ivanishvili and his team discussed almost nothing except how bad Saakashvili is. Of course, at least one-third of the 'Georgian Dream' members in the parliament are worthy people, professionals, but they prefer to hope for a better future without doing anything for it. 

- Did smaller opposition parties manage to gain more support of the population in these years?

- Opposition parties, which only criticized each other in previous years, criticize Saakashvili and Ivanishvili today. Many sociological studies, carried out by both local sociologists and international organizations, indicate one thing: neither of the two major political parties will receive at least half of the votes. This means that the government won't be formed like it was from 2004 to present day, when one party selected ministers to its liking. Which means that it will be the time of coalitions, and you can expect a lot of surprises. If the elections will be fair, there will be around six parties in the parliament. I would like to note that all the negative election-related habits of the UNM are used by the ruling party today: almost all administrative resources that were used in pre-electoral processes by Saakashvili's party are now used by the 'Georgian Dream'. Georgian society views these parties the same way due to this. Other parties, five most popular of them have a good chance to be in the coalition government.

- What is the most likely outcome of the parliamentary elections in Georgia?

- It will depend on the coefficient of fairness of the elections. I can guess a possible outcume in case truly fair elections will be held. The 'Georgian Dream' will be the leader by number of parliamentary seats, but this won't be enough to form the government. The UNM has the best chances to get the second place. From 3 to 6 place - 'Free Democrats' of Irakli Alasania, 'United Georgia' of Nino Burjanadze, 'State for a People', the party of Paata Burdchuladze, is also interesting, and there is also 'Patriots of Georgia', which is also headed by a woman. By the way, it is actually big news for Georgian politics, when women head parties that can reach the parliament. If the 'Republican Party' won't be in the parliament it will damage Georgian parliamentarism, but Republicans - are a headache of Ivanishvili, because it is the most experienced and popular party, which will soon celebrate the 40th anniversary. 

If only two parties will be in the parliament again, because they will try to use each other as barriers against attacks from third parties, it will mean that these elections are not fair.