The visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Baku and his statements on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have encouraged observers. Lavrov did not hide that the meeting with Ilham Aliyev was dedicated to Karabakh and expressed hope for "the realization of the understanding" reached by the presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia during the meeting in St. Petersburg on June 20th. "We do not discuss publicly the details of the ideas that are being discussed in the framework of the meetings between the presidents and foreign ministers. In St. Petersburg on June 20th the presidents of the three countries at the end of the meeting specifically agreed that the parties would "not frighten" the situation, and would take good care of the sprouts of hope that there are now. The three presidents agreed that their comments are of a general nature, without going into details. I hope that we will follow this. This is not because we have something to hide, it's just the ethical norm of any negotiation process. But as my colleague and friend, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Elmar Mammadyarov, said, there is a reason to believe that this time we are much closer to long term success than we have been until now," the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
After the meeting of the presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia in St. Petersburg, the former US ambassador to Azerbaijan, the former Assistant Secretary of State for South Caucasus, Matthew Bryza, told Vestnik Kavkaza that these negotiations have improved the relations between the conflicting parties. Bryza also expressed some optimism in an interview to our site on the visit of Lavrov to Baku.
- In your opinion, how will the visit of the Russian Foreign Minister to the capital of Azerbaijan contribute to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
-Any visit by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to Azerbaijan and/or Armenia is significant with regard to mediation of the Nagorno-Karabkah conflict. In my professional experience, Minister Lavrov has always been a creative and deeply insightful actor in this process, always keeping Russia’s strategic interests at the forefront. while also trying to move mediation of the conflict forward.
In this context, the citation of President Aliyev in this article is significant. President Aliyev is quoted as saying that now is the most active period of mediation of the conflict in his recent memory. I interpret this statement to mean that President Aliyev senses the descent into near-war in April has awakened all parties — Armenia, Azerbaijan, the Minsk Group Co-Chair countries — to the urgent need to reinvigorate discussions on a framework agreement for the NK conflict, which, once finalized, will define the basic principles for a final peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
- How soon do you think we can expect progress on this path?
- There is a long way to go before reaching such breakthroughs.
Azerbaijan and Armenia must resolve whether the "Madrid Document” or "Kazan Principles” will form the foundation of a framework agreement. According to the Madrid Document, all seven territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh would be returned to Azerbaijan in exchange for an "interim legal status” for Nagorno-Karabakh, a future vote on Nagorno-Karabakh’s final legal status, and a corridor linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh through Azerbaijan’s district of Lachin. According to the Kazan Principles, only five of the seven territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh would be returned to Azerbaijan.
Resolving this important difference between returning five versus all seven territories to Azerbaijan will likely require the most recent ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia, following the unprecedented violence of last April, to solidify. This will take some time. Hence, I would expect the the focus of Minister Lavrov’s most recent discussions in Baku was more on practical measures to implement the ceasefire than on resolving this difference regarding the number of territories to be returned.
- Which option seems more realistic to you?
-One way to move forward could be to agree on interim step of returning some number of territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan now in exchange for resolution of full transit links for Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia in all geographic directions, with the other elements of the Madrid Document to be negotiated later. Perhaps this is what Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Mammadyarov meant what he stated that process in mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict must occur in a step-by-step approach. This has long been the approach of Azerbaijan, which former Armenian President Ter-Petrossian accepted, and which led to his ouster.
