This Sunday the citizens of Georgia will once again determine the future of the country at the elections. These elections approach while the country is in political limbo: Over the past year, 'Georgian Dream' lost a significant part of its composition, as well as the support of those who voted for it in 2012; 'United National Movement' mastered the role of the main oppositional party, and many smaller parties try to bring the electorate of the 'Dream' and the UNM on their side. The director of the non-commercial partnership 'Caucasian Cooperation' Nikolay Silaev discussed the political life of Georgia in these four years and how it will affect the results of parliamentary elections in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza.
- What can you tell about today's 'Georgian Dream'?
- Modern 'Georgian Dream' is still an amorphous political force, which resembles classic post-Soviet ruling party: it is primarily amorphous ideologically, and then structurally. It got rid of the forces that previously were a part of it, but tried to control the entire agenda of the coalition using their minimal support. I'm talking about the fact that they got rid of the Republican Party, which was a big plus for the coalition, since Republicans are unpopular, we will see this at the elections. In addition, 'Dream' tried to form more or less understandable ideological approach shortly before the elections. This approach emphasizes that Georgia seeks soft conservatism and Westernism. Of course, Giorgi Kvirikashvili, who became the Prime Minister at the end of last year, turned out to be much more effective and impressive than the former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, but still, 'Georgian Dream' could carry out more energetic election campaign six months before the elections or even a year before the elections. Right now it seems that they started ti think about the elections in May or June.
At the same time, the 'Georgian Dream' does not have as many achievements as it might seem, so now it focuses on the return of free health care, which has been liquidated during Saakashvili's reign. It really is a great reform and a great success, David Sergeenko's Ministry of Health is very popular in Georgia. The coalition also stresses the continuation of pro-Western foreign policy course, while improving the relations with Russia, which gave the country certain economic advantages. And of course the campaign of this party focuses on a lot of bad things that happend during Saakashvili's reign. Overall, I expect that the coalition will keep its positions in the Georgian politics.
- What did the UNM go through in these four years? What can you tell about its position in the elections?
- The UNM is still a very influential party, which controls the second largest and the only oppositional faction in the parliament. It keeps its positions in a number of regions. I would like to note that even though the 'Georgian Dream' tried to deprive the UNM of political influence, it was unable to do it to the desired extent, since there are not so much criminal cases initiated against major members of this party.
Of course, the UNM wants to return to power and considers this to be a desirable scenario, wanting to achieve this at the elections, especially since the party still has strongly motivated supporters. But at the same time it has very high anti-rating, and people who are against this party are also very motivated. They really don't want these politicians to return to the republic's leadership, because they remember what happened in Georgia when Saakashvili's party was in power.
- Did smaller opposition parties manage to increase or earn support of the population in four years?
- Four years ago, we said that there is a two-party system in Georgia. Life showed incorrectness of this statement, since during the presidential election in 2013 Nino Burjanadze was at the third place, and then her party was pretty popular at the municipal elections in 2014, just like 'Patriots Alliance'. It is possible that one of these parties will become a part of the new parliament, maybe even both of them.
Of course, there is also Paata Burchuladze's party, but it is nothing more than pre-election and openly manipulative product and it should not be taken seriously. His party is another version of the UNM, it is obvious to everyone, so it is unlikely that Burchuladze will be very popular among the population.
- What is the most likely outcome of the parliamentary elections in Georgia on October 8?
- I think that 4 or 5 will be elected to the parliament. Basically, it is clear that the 'Georgian Dream' is going to win the elections and will get the majority, which would allow it to form the government. Let me remind you that half of the mandates are elected in majority districts, where the ruling party has certain advantages. However, the coalition won't win in all majority districts, because there are regions where nationalists have strong positions, in Samegrelo and Upper Svaneti, for example.
The UNM is unlikely to repeat the success of 2012 and will get fewer seats in the parliament. In my opinion, the main intrigue is who esle will get into the parliament. I believe that there will be someone else, the only question is who. Perhaps it will be either Paata Burchuladze, though it is unlikely, or Burjanadze, or 'Patriots Alliance'.
