Exactly one year ago, on October 7, 2023, Hamas militants, taking advantage of the Simchat Torah holiday, attacked Israeli settlements close to the Gaza Strip, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 prisoners. "Vestnik Kavkaza" spoke with Vitaly Naumkin, Scientific Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, about how the Middle East conflict has escalated in a year.
- Vitaly Vyacheslavovich, in your opinion, what were the goals of Hamas in the terrorist attack on October 7 last year?
- It seems to me that Hamas wanted to demonstrate its capability to cause serious military and political damage to Israel. This goal was achieved, Hamas made the region talk about itself as a serious force. Of course, we do not like what Hamas did that day, especially the cruelty demonstrated by its militants at the beginning of the operation.
We cannot say that Hamas has achieved nothing or that Hamas has been liquidated, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted. Hamas continues to exist, and its influence is likely to remain in the region, making it an influential force in the foreseeable future in the Middle East.
- What state have the conflicting parties reached a year later?
- There are no final, conclusive results yet. The situation continues to deteriorate, tensions are rising, the main problems are still not resolved. It must be emphasized that no positive development of the situation will be possible until a Palestinian state is established.
- In this case, what is the current prospect for ending the conflict?
- This prospect is not in sight until Israel changes its policy on the Palestinian issue and agrees that the creation of a Palestinian state is necessary to pacify the situation.
- What are the risks of the Middle East conflict escalating into a war between Iran and Israel?
- I believe that this war will not happen, since no one needs it. Even if Israel is interested in this scenario, Iran does not need a war with Israel. Judging by their statements, the Americans are not interested either. Russia is not interested in it too.
Look at how French President Emmanuel Macron is behaving now. He is not our ally at all, and we do not support the policy he is pursuing, but now Macron is calling on other countries not to supply weapons to Israel and seems to have stopped supplying French weapons himself. This is one of the signs of the failure of Israel's policy in the international arena, especially within the European Union.
- Are there risks of Russia being drawn into hostilities in the Middle East?
- These risks are excluded. Russia is involved in diplomatic activities around the conflict and is acting as a mediator. There will be no involvement in the form of sending a military contingent or any other military measures.
