Interviewed by Orhan Sattarov, director of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
The breakthrough in Lausanne in the negotiations over Iran's nuclear program has become an international sensation, in which was difficult to believe until the last minute. Too many conflicting interests of the leading world powers intertwined in the "Iranian node". The controversial domestic political situation in Iran, where the conservatives are opposing the nuclear deal with the West, together with the opposing Israel, which enjoys broad support from the American Republicans, left not much hope for a positive outcome of the negotiations in Switzerland. However, there were experts who were originally confident in the successful completion of the negotiations between the 'Six' and Iran. One of them is a doctor of political sciences, Bakhruz Abdolvand, director of research at the Berlin Center for the Study of the Caspian Region at the Free University of Berlin, as well as an expert on Iran at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) - a leading government think tank of Germany.
- Mr. Abdolvand, how will the nuclear deal with Iran affect the influence of the Islamic Republic in Central Asia and the Caucasus?
- Central Asia and the Caucasus are currently facing the threat of fundamentalism in the face of the Taliban, "Islamic State" and "al-Qaeda". Since Iran has accumulated sufficient experience in the fight against terrorism, it will be able to provide support in this area for the countries of the region. In addition, there are still many projects that passed without Iran's participation, or were not implemented at all, which would integrate the region into the world economy, (the pipeline "Nabucco", for example). In the new conditions, the process of integration of the region into the world economy through Iran will be easier.
- How will the breakthrough in the negotiations in Lausanne influence the formation of oil prices in the short and medium terms?
- This influence is rather limited, because you have to understand that oil prices are not "political" and depend on very specific market mechanisms. In the short term, given the sharp increase in exports of Iranian oil, the price may go down. But in the medium and long terms, the price will only grow. It goes without saying that the possible widening of the conflict in Yemen will also have an impact on the pricing, because, in this case, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait will be controlled by Houthis, which will have a negative impact on exports of Saudi oil. In addition, the anti-Yemen coalition consists of oil-producing countries, whose oil sectors may also be affected.
- What measures could Israel take to undermine the negotiation process?
- Israel's opportunities are limited. Apart from aggressive psychological and information warfare, Tel Aviv will not be able to do anything. It should be understood that the opponents of Israeli policies in today's conditions are the leading world powers, which are not welcoming the escalation.
- What can you say about the Russian position in this situation? It is obvious that Iran is a natural rival in the energy market for Russia, and its escape from isolation brings certain risks for Russia. Are there any separate agreements between Moscow and Tehran?
- Russia is pursuing a pragmatic policy. It will continue to cooperate with Iran in the military sphere, while trying, with the help of Turkey and the "Turkish Stream" project, to block the integration of Iran into the EU energy market. Despite this, Iran, of course, will expand its LNG terminals, and, ultimately, will take its place in the energy market. Moscow should deal with this.
- How would you comment on the situation that is emerging in Yemen?
- The Yemeni conflict should be interpreted as a desperate attempt by Saudi Arabia to compensate for the positions which were lost in Iraq and Syria. But Riyadh will achieve the opposite effect. The Saudis will not win the war solely by air strikes. They cannot send ground troops either, because on one hand, half of their troops are of Yemeni descent. On the other hand, the Yemeni Houthis and supporters of Ali Abdullah Saleh are in a better position, and Saudi Arabia is at risk of getting involved in a bloody and exhausting ground operation. In fact, by its actions, Riyadh has placed itself in a dead-end situation. If Saudi Arabia expands its military actions, it will face "another Vietnam." If the Saudi authorities stop the bombing, they would lose face and face a political crisis. So now the Saudis are trying to achieve the participation of Pakistan and Egypt in this war. But in fact, these two armies are no better than the Saudi one. The Egyptians cannot cope with the situation on the Sinai, nor the Pakistani army with the Taliban. How, in this case, can they achieve military success in a foreign land? In general, this war is a disaster for Saudi Arabia. It started this war to reduce Iranian influence, but the result will be just the opposite in the end.
