News.Az interviews Alexey Vlasov, general director of Moscow State University's Post-Soviet Research Centre.
What are your impressions from the Sochi summit on Karabakh?
I think the very fact of holding regular meetings at such a level is already a positive moment. For this reason, while no one has increased expectations, it is possible to believe that any breakthrough in the negotiation process is already a positive sign. This relates especially to the topic of war prisoners. This is one of the hot topics for the whole settlement process and if achievements here are obvious, it is possible to say that the very background of the negotiations is changing.
In other words, the result of the Sochi meeting is positive for both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Is it possible to view the agreement on the exchange of war prisoners, which is not decisive for a political settlement of the conflict, to be a step forward towards a solution?
I would not say that the topic of war prisoners is a second-grade issue, since they are someone’s sons and husbands, who have received a chance to return home. These families, in turn, have relatives, which means that the number of people who receive positive news from the results of this round of talks will rise dramatically. Yes, this is not the cardinal solution to the issue of the conflict, but this is a serious step of Armenia and Azerbaijan towards each other.
In my opinion, ‘the small thing theory’ is what can really be worked on now.
Do you believe in the prospects of an ‘overloading’ of US-Russian relations and, if yes, can it improve Moscow’s and Washington’s interaction in the Karabakh conflict settlement?
As for overloading, frankly speaking, I do not trust all these image projects. They are more a drum fight than a reality. But we need to understand that, if there is a serious thaw in relations between Russia and US, it would be much easier to achieve an accord on the Karabakh conflict. But considering the events in the Arab world, it would not be so easy to achieve this desired accord.
How would you comment on the opinion that the keys to a Karabakh settlement are in Moscow?
I do not think Moscow holds the keys to a solution of the conflict. The basis of a successful solution is an accord between Baku and Yerevan. Moscow and other mediators can accelerate the process of bringing positions closer, but it is unable to achieve reconciliation between the parties.
Moscow is doing as much as it can within this mission. But we see that the way to mutual understanding and compromise is long and contradictory.
There is an opinion that Russia’s activity on its own could be more productive for a settlement of the conflict than the involvement of remote US and France in this activity. What do you think about this?
I think every mediator country makes its contribution. But naturally, Moscow takes a more active position today. This is a reality which reflects a very important factor. We are part of the Caucasus policy and we cannot play complex games like other countries without respect to the regional interests.
For Russia, security in the South Caucasus is a way to ensure effective security in the North Caucasus. This is the reason the Kremlin is striving to become a sincere mediator. Russia is not seeking geopolitical benefits and this circumstance defines a higher level of effectiveness of our mediation.
Interview by Leyla Tagiyeva
