- Mr. Rahr, after 2008 the EU role in the South Caucasus diminished. Ahead 2008 there was at least Steinmeier’s plan on settlement of the conflict in Georgia. Today there are no such initiatives. Due to President Medvedev’s efforts Russia is the leader of mediators in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. How do you think, was it an initial plan of Russia to limit access of the EU and other foreign forces to the Caucasian region?
- Russia couldn’t have such plan, as it could lose. In that situation it was difficult to predict position and reaction of the West, Europe. I think no Russian politician could predict the US reaction. Passive reaction of America is odd. Probably it connects with the fact that Bush lacked information on the events in Georgia. Time will tell when archives will be opened. Or when Bush will publish… He has published his memoirs already…
- Yes
- I haven’t read it.
- Neither have I.
- It’s not the point. However, the question is interesting. I think Europe failed to take its chance. What has Russia done? Russia let the world know that it has influence in the region. Nevertheless, Europe hasn’t given up Nabucco project. It seems the pipeline will be built.
- In October Azerbaijan has to agree…
- Yes, and Russian actions didn’t prevent these plans. Moreover, it probably revived them. If Russia had a plan to destroy all Western schemes on pipelines through the South Caucasian corridor, it failed. Many people thought that Russia had a plan to show that it is the leader in the region. No, Russia hasn’t frightened anyone. I think European activity should be considered separately from Russian. Europe had chance to improve its influence in the region, but it didn’t take it due to various reasons. Some countries wanted to concentrate on North Africa. Others, like Germany thought that in the Caucasus the EU should cooperate with Russia. Poland and Czech Republic proposed a new Eastern strategy for the EU, which excluded cooperation with Russia. I think that Europe paralyzed itself in this process. Europe is still not a full actor with its own foreign ministry. That is why the action on pacification of the Caucasus failed. It is naïve to think that the EU can do more than the OSCE, which appeared to be helpless in the region too. It is not only about the Georgian-Russian conflict, but also about Nagorny Karabakh. I think that Russia only makes show that it succeeds there. The unsettled situation cannot be solved, as Armenia and Azerbaijan don’t want to find compromise. The same situation is between Georgia and Russia.
Nabucco can be a serious lever. It will be one of the main pipelines of the international energy policy. Billions will be spent to it. Plenty of countries will depend on it, especially South Europe. Nobody wants critical situations in the region. Azerbaijan sees that if Nabucco is built, the country will have an opportunity to influence the world policy. The West should take into consideration Azeri geopolitical interests as well. However, Azerbaijan should understand great responsibility. Nabucco will define future energy security of Europe, and all South Caucasian policy of the EU, America and Russia will be connected with this pipeline.
