Hoeve Halbach: “Irrevocable withdrawal of Armenian military forces from the territory around Nagorno-Karabakh is necessary”

German expert on the Caucasus from the Berlin ‘Science and Politics” Foundation, Professor Hoeve Halbach, shared his view of the ongoing processes in the South and North Caucasus with a VK correspondent. The third part of the interview touches upon the situation in Armenia and the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.-  Mr. Halbach, how can you comment on the series of resignations of top officials in Armenia? What are the chances of Serge Sargsyan in the next election race?-  I haven’t yet formed a clear picture of the developments which are taking place in the internal political scene of Armenia. I think we should wait for the elections. I don’t think a change of power will necessarily take place, however, it is possible. The former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan is an outstanding opposition figure. Speculation on the return of Robert Kocheryan to political life at the side of the current president Sargsyan is also interesting. At the moment the internal political situation in Armenia is not clear.-  Some people in Azerbaijan think that in the case of Ter-Petrosyan’s rise to power a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be possible…-  Yes, this opinion is understandable, as in the past Ter-Petrosyan was overthrown because of his readiness to compromise in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. As a result, in 1988 the Karabakh group came to office, headed by Robert Kocheryan. That is why a return to the presidential position by Ter-Petrosyan could have consequences in the sphere of settlement of the conflict. But I don’t think he will risk and dare a direct compromise. I think a big problem in this conflict is the threats of power elites that conflicting political forces will use a readiness for compromise for their own internal political interests. This aspect plays a significant role. However, space for compromise is rather limited.-  Considering the absolutely opposite positions of the conflict parties, what kind of compromise can there be at all?-  How does the road map of the conflict settlement look? Does it presuppose a package or phased variants of a settlement, what steps should be taken? One of the crucial moments is the irrevocable withdrawal of Armenian military forces from the territory around Nagorno-Karabakh before what should be done with Nagorny Karabakh can be understood. The territories around Nagorno-Karabakh are bigger than Nagorno-Karabakh itself. Most Azerbaijani refugees came from these nearby territories. I think Azerbaijan should focus on these territories first of all and establish conditions for withdrawal of the Armenian army from these regions. But it won’t achieve this goal through bellicose oratory. The erritories which are regarded by Azerbaijan as occupied are a security belt for Armenia. So certain conditions should be provided so that the international community could intensively demand Armenia to withdraw its army.

-          Is military rhetoric an obstacle on the path to this?

-          Of course. Until Baku stops threatening with its military power, Armenia won’t withdraw its troops from the five regions near Karabakh.

-          So you think that if Azerbaijan stops making hard statements tomorrow, Armenia will begin withdrawal of its army, don’t you?

-          No, but a new situation would be established, in the context of which the international community could put pressure on Armenia. Then the fate and reconstruction of these regions could be considered. For example, if they returned under Azerbaijan’s control, The Azerbaijani power bodies would start functioning there and refugees could return to their homes. At first these regions would be demilitarized and any military presence would be limited to police officers only. I think this is the way a new war can be prevented.

As for the humanitarian factor, the problems connected with these regions are much more urgent than the problems of Nagorno-Karabakh.

In the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict a lot can be done, but the status quo is not the way out. So the participants in the conflict should initiate certain steps. I often hear from my colleagues in Baku that the Minsk Group and Moscow make insufficient efforts to put pressure on Armenia. But I think that the key to the conflict settlement belongs to both sides of the conflict.

Will Nagorno-Karabakh return to Azerbaijan or not? That is another issue. I advise Azerbaijan to concentrate on the regions around Nagorno-Karabakh.

-          In general it correlates to the Madrid principles, which presuppose the withdrawal of Armenian troops from nearby regions… But as far as I understand the main point is a referendum: will Nagorno-Karabakh get autonomy within Azerbaijan or independence?

-          Yes, there are a lot of questions. First of all, the notion of autonomy. What does it mean? We remember the meaning of the notion “autonomy” in Soviet understanding. At the same time, it is doubtful that such a country as Azerbaijan, without firm democratic and federal political structures, will propose autonomy. In 2009, according to a poll, most Azerbaijani residents considered Nagorno-Karabakh to be a common region, and only few considered it to be an autonomy. Azerbaijan has only one autonomy today – Nakhchivan, but political relations there are authoritarian. Thus, it is not a good example.

-          However, the international organization Freedom House lowered the status of Nagorno-Karabakh and referred to it as “non-free territories”

-          Yes, that happened due to the elections, which appeared to be not competitive. The status of Nagorno-Karabakh was lowered by the organization, it is true.

-          Under what conditions would Armenia recognize Nagorno-Karabakh?

-          Armenia threatens that that would be the first step in case Azerbaijan applies military force. As far as I remember, last year the Armenian parliament initiated recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh, but the government rejected the initiative, as such a step would ruin the negotiation process. A lot depends on the seriousness of Azerbaijan’s threats.

-          If escalation of the conflict took place, what would Russia do, especially in the context of a new term of functioning of the Russian military base in Gyumri?

-          Yes, Russia signed a treaty which makes it defend Armenia in case of attack. But Nagorno-Karabakh is another case, it is not recognized by any state of the world, including Russia. In case of a military operation of Azerbaijan against Nagorno-Karabakh, this treaty is useless. However, neither Russia nor other international players are interested in an escalation of the conflict. But due to the militarization of both sides and mutual provocations, the situation could get out of hand.

-          In one of his recent interviews the general secretary of the OSCE, Lamberto Dannier, mentioned more intensive participation of Turkey in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Do you think this is realistic?

-          Turkey is limited in a direct settlement of the conflict and in a possible peacemaking mission, as it has taken the position of one of the sides, Azerbaijan. That is why Yerevan shuts out any possible participation of Ankara in the settlement. And if a peacemaking mission would ever take place at the border line, only neutral countries would be chosen for it. Neither Russia nor Turkey nor Iran would participate in a peacemaking mission. Turkey has too difficult relations with Armenia and too close relations with Azerbaijan. However, in general Turkey is becoming a more significant player in the South Caucasus. But at the moment Turkey is focused on developments in the Arab world.

Interview by Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK