Interview by Petr Lukimson, Israel. Exclusively to VK
The professor from the European University in Jerusalem, Dr. Vladimir Mesamed is one of the leading Iran specialists in Israel.
- What is the real situation in Iran today? Do you think some Israeli politicians are right to say that Iran is close to economic collapse and will meet the international society halfway soon?
- It is true that the country experiences serious economic difficulties caused by international sanctions. These sanctions result in great instability of the Iranian society. According to recent data published on the information agency IRNA web-site, another 20% of the Iranian population found themselves below the poverty line. At the moment the social group includes 40% of population. The unemployment growth continues. There is another negative tendency: many of employed people have a part-time job and are ready to work for smaller salary than it was agreed – for not to lose job or professional skills. Some people agree with any conditions only to find food for their families. According to the General Secretary of the Iranian Laborers House, Ali Mahdjub, about 1200 industrial enterprises have been shut down in Iran in a year, 100 thousand people became unemployed. Remember that one of election promises by Ahmadinejad was liquidation of unemployment in the nearest future. The minister of industry, mines, and commerce, Mehdi Gazanfari, said that all economic difficulties are connected with one factor – sanctions by the international society directed against Iran. The minister of economy of Iran, Shamseddin Hoseini, indirectly confirmed his words and said that another huge shock is serious foreign currency fluctuation, which is caused by economic pressure by sanctions. They became sensible in recent 6 months when the real course of Iranian toman boomed from 1100 up to 1800-2000 tomans per dollar. The media has already reported that during the meeting in Istanbul on April 14 the head of the Iranian delegation, the secretary of the National Security Supreme Council, Said Jalili, literally begged the European Union's High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Catherine Ashton, to encourage decrease of economic pressure on his country. There is high inflation in the country. Officially it is 21% in a year, while real inflation is about 26%. Some analysts think this figure doesn’t reflect the reality. The supreme spiritual authorities of the country are also concerned with the economic problems. Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi urged the government to think about the population. “You get used to blame sanctions for all problems. But it is only partially fair. The government should be blamed as well, because it doesn’t think about common people.” Almost all PMs stated on economic difficulties on June 12. Prices are also too high for people. Bread prices will grow by 30% since mid June. However, it is early to speak about an economic collapse. Sanctions are working, but the country sales oil and live.
- Do you think the former head of Mossad, Meir Dagan, was right to say that despite radicalism the current Iranian regime is quite rational and wouldn’t use a nuclear bomb against Israel?
- For several years the foreign policy of Iran was aimed at reaching the status of a regional power. President Mahmud Ahmadinejad states that Iran has already become the world superpower. Annually he states on new milestones of uranium enrichment, growth of number of centrifuges and so on. Turning into a superpower means joining the club of nuclear powers for Iran. It is a dream of the Iranian leaders since Ayatollah Homeini. That is why Iran needs a nuclear bomb as a prestigious element for pressing on neighboring countries and recognition of its leadership in the Islamic world. It is easy to believe that the bomb could be used against Israel, considering the high level of anti-Israeli attitudes. However, the bomb could equally be used against neighboring countries of the Sunni Islamic world.
- Recently The Jerusalem Post has published an interview with son of shah Reza Pehlevi, in which he urges Israel to invest money not into bombing of Iran, but into support of the Iranian opposition for speeding up change of the political regime in the country. Are there any materials on contacts between Israel and the Iranian opposition? Do people of Iran want changes?
- Probably Israel has links with the Iranian opposition. But it is difficult to believe the opposition influences seriously the political processes in the country. As for the son of the last Iranian shah who lives in the USA and tries to consolidate pro-monarchic opposition, I think this initiative has no prospects. The US are trying to work inside the opposition and contribute to its growth and influence, but they have no real achievements. As for people attitudes, most of them were raised under the Islamic regime, and if they want some changes, they want to maintain the current regime.
- What is the character of current Iranian-Russian relations? What is Russia for the current Iranian regime?
- Russia has spoken many times in recent years on the strategic character of its relations with Iran. In fact it is so. However, considering the fact that current Russia hasn’t still decided on its foreign political priorities, it didn’t cut loose the West and didn’t join the East, Moscow doesn’t demonstrate firmness in the Iranian direction. That is why relations between two countries are characterized by serious tactical differences, and Russia’s image is dim for Iran. If we read Iranian newspapers, we will see a range of opinions – from an image of a friend to an image of a foe who wants to look like a friend. I think the Iranians do not trust Russia, thinking that Russia could betray them.
- Some Russian political scientists (for example, Yugeni Satanovsky) state that Iran is intensively working among Russian Muslims and intensifying separatism among them. Do you think it is true?
- I don’t believe in it. Iran tries to “work” in the Muslim regions of Russia and the former Soviet Union. But at the moment Iran is implementing various cultural and economic projects there. Shiah Islamic Iran understands futility of working among Sunni Muslims. But in a strategic plan Iran doesn’t reject the idea of export of Islamic revolution. However, the right time hasn’t come yet.
- What do you think about the crisis of Iranian-Azerbaijani relations? What are real reasons for it? How could the occasions influence life of the Azerbaijanis in Iran?
- This topic dominates in many international mass media. I think Iranian-Azerbaijani relations cannot be analyzed without consideration of the concept of Islamic revolution and its definite anti-Western component in Iran. The USA and the West have been called enemies of the Iranian people, and the relations between two countries should be considered in this context. In recent years Azerbaijan has joined many Western structures, confirming its pro-Western way of development. Of course Tehran doesn’t like it at all.
The other factor worsening the dialogue between Tehran and Baku is development of relations between Azerbaijan and Israel. Israel is an important purchaser of Azerbaijani oil; the countries have close cooperation in military and technological spheres. At the moment about quarter of imported oil comes from Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan takes first place among Muslim countries on turnover with Israel. Both countries need each other. It is important for Israel to have such a partner – a mild Muslim republic with Shiah population near Iran. Azerbaijan considers Israel as a bridge to the West, exporter of modern technologies and know-how. Direct contacts between the leaders of two states show that Azerbaijan thinks about the Iranian factor minimally in relations with Israel.
There is one more important aspect in relations between Iran and Azerbaijan – they are a part of centuries-long history of relations between Iran and peoples of the South Caucasus. According to the Russian-Iranian Treaty of Gulistan (1813), Azerbaijanis were divided between Russia and Iran (Persia until 1935), and majority of the ethnic group is living in Iran at the moment. Mutual attraction between Persians and Azerbaijanis is explained by various aspects: territorial closeness, confessional equality, one historic fate, and so on. As for differences, uniqueness of Azerbaijani character should be considered, as it combines Shiah mentality and the Turk ethnic basis. The last is a stumbling block between Iran and Azerbaijan.
Independence of the former Soviet Azerbaijan led Iranian-Azerbaijani relation to the intergovernmental level. But the Iranians didn’t understand that peoples living in Azerbaijan differs from peoples living in Iran. Majority of Azerbaijani population didn’t accept Iranian Islamic propaganda due to their pro-European orientation, urbanizations and success of the Soviet anti-religious campaign. Any growth of influence of Tehran in Baku id considered in the society as a growth of the Iranian threat. That is why the idea of Islamic revolution is not popular in Azerbaijan, and that is why tensions between two countries exist.
- As for Iranian-Israeli relations, what is the main factor in making a decision to launch a strike at Iran?
- I doubt in the idea of military settlement of the Iranian nuclear problem, as consequences of such a step would be unexpected. I think this decision could lead only to growth of number of Israel’s foes in the world. I think Jewish are smart enough to find another way out. Probably it is being implemented at the moment, but without public and media covering. What will be next? Time will tell…
