Georgi Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi, exclusive to VK
Local experts consider Washington's promise to help the Caucasian partner in the creation of missile defense systems to be the most significant outcome of the recent visit of the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Georgia. VK interviewed Irakli Aladashvili, the editor of the independent military-analytical magazine "Arsenal", and discussed the importance of such assistance in view of the challenges the country faces.
VK: Mr. Aladashvili, what is your opinion - is it possible to create the Georgian missile defense system with the support of the Americans?
- It is very important news. However, we should remember that discovering the purpose in the air is not enough, the second matter is to destroy it. These are still two different themes in our conditions.
Of course, the statement of the U.S. State Department about the plans to assist Georgia in creating a tracking system for airspace and water area is encouraging, but the subject of the declaration is the system of monitoring and detecting purposes and training personnel at the brigade headquarters and not the supply of protective equipment from the air attacks, including rocket ones. Nevertheless, the creation of unified integrated system of control over the airspace and sea areas is a very significant step forward. After all, firstly, you need to discover the purpose, then to try to shoot it down.
At the moment, Georgia has only a few radars, except for civil navigation, but there is no unified tracking system. But in the highland it is very important to have a system that would allow controlling over the airspace of both large and small heights. For example, if a radar can fix the target flying at high altitudes but cannot detect the plane flying at an altitude of 1 kilometer because of the relief, then such a system can hardly be considered to be reliable. At the moment this is the case. So, I think it is very important to create a unified system of monitoring and tracking. If the Americans mean such assistance, we will welcome it.
VK: Have the Americans, for example, supplied you radars for monitoring airspace up to now?
- I do not have such information. Anyway, I've never heard that the U.S. defense department supply us radars.
As for detection and control equipment, everything is more or less clear. But this is not enough. For example, radar detected the target. What can you do with it then, how to shoot it down?
In any case, there is nothing about it in the State Department's declaration. Its subject is only monitoring and control.
For example, you see that the Russian rocket "Iskander" is launched towards Georgia. What can you do in such conditions?
You can’t do anything about "Iskander", anyway. Firstly, it is a missile and not a combat aircraft. It is necessary to distinguish between air defense and missile defense. Of course, the control system will fix a launched missile at the last moment. But finding a helicopter flying at 300 miles per hour is one matter, detecting the plane at a speed of 1200 km is a different one, and the rocket is also quite different: its speed is about 2 kilometers per second. The speed of "Iskander" in the ballistic trajectory, for example, reaches such figures. Of course you can note it, but after that…
VK: So, you want to say that the statement of the State Department is just a declaration, and it doesn’t change anything in the real balance of power?
- No, I don’t. I never said that. Just you should know that aircraft differs from rockets. As for the missile defense, even the United States and NATO are not able to create an effective missile defense system yet. They do their best but cannot achieve their goal. The reason for it is that missile defense is a very complicated task. We cannot ask them to create it. That is why, in my opinion, creating unified system of monitoring and tracking, as well as ensuring its effective operation would be a great achievement at this stage.
VK: You noticed hints at the subsequent integration of this system with the NATO air defense system in the State Department's statement, didn’t you?
- This is the next stage. It is known that the southern part of the air defense system of NATO has recently relocated from Italy to Turkey, that is, to the borderline with Georgia. There were statements about the integration of Georgia with this defense system even before the August war, but it was not technically possible to carry it out, though it could be a very important tool in the war.
VK: Let us suppose that the Americans supplied "Patriot" systems to Georgia. Will they be effective against the "Iskander?"
- I doubt it. In any case, when in 1991 the Americans and the Israelis tried to bring down the Soviet Scud missiles with “Patriots” , during the Operation Desert Storm, they were very ineffective. 10-15 “Patriots” were used against one Scud, and if they even hit the target, the missile was not destroyed but only misguided. What a difference will the rocket drop in the center of the city or in the suburbs?. Such a system can be considered effective only if it is able to destroy enemy missiles in the air.
Of course, since then a lot of things were improved, and new technology appeared. "Patriot" is also not the one that was 20 years ago, but then when we talk about the "Iskander" - this is also a missile of a completely different level than the Scud is. "Iskander-M" rockets (there are a lot of attempts to replace the rockets “Scarab-B” with them) are much better. Moreover, if the newest maneuverable stage will be installed on it, this will make the task of destroying it in the air almost impossible. On the 12th of August, 2008 a rocket "Iskander" with a cluster warhead fell in Gori, but it did not have maneuverable stage.
VK: But the Americans also have systems similar to the Russian S-300 and S-400?
- Yes, they have; the last modification of "Patriot" and the THAAD system could theoretically destroy the missile on its ballistic trajectory, but no one even made declarations on their placement in Georgia so far. In addition, either today or tomorrow, their use by the Georgian personnel is absolutely impossible and unrealistic. The situation will be different if the Americans, as part of the strategic partnership with Georgia, place them in our country, together with their crew. This they will give us serious guarantees of our security.
The conflict in August 2008 proved that air and missile defense is more important than tanks and artillery in today’s warfare. But creating a unified integrated control system (I will say it once again) is a very important step, because in the presence of such a system, it would be only a matter of time to get and to install missile defense systems. Maybe it could be done in a few days, but the establishment of a system of control is a problem which can be solved only in months and years.
