Heiko Wimmen: Nobody is ready to act against the UN SC decision, as happened in Iraq in 2003

Interview by Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK

Turkey is conducting consultations with its partners in NATO on further steps toward Syria after the shooting down of its fighter aircraft. Will this lead to certain results? The expert of the German Fund of Science and Politics, Heiko Wimmen, thinks that it won’t. In addition, he explains why the situation in Syria shouldn’t be compared with Libya and how Iran will act in case of a military operation against Damascus.

-          After the Syrian air defense shot down the Turkish fighter aircraft, foreign ministers of the EU countries have extended sanctions against the Syrian regime, forbidding Syrian officials from entering the EU. Will this influence the policy of Bashar al-Assad’s regime?

-          After all the developments, this step wouldn’t impress anybody in Syria. These people are more concerned with the prospect of finding themselves at the Hague Tribunal, rather than with entering any countries. These measures are symbolic, even though they are right. At the moment we are speaking about a regime which is fighting for its political and even physical survival, I think. As for the EU positions, everyone knows about them. But it won’t have an effect.

-          The EU still stands against military intervention in Syria. What other opportunities are there to influence the situation?

-          The only diplomatic option is to work more intensively with our Russian friends. Moscow often hints that it doesn’t want to be a lawyer for all the dictators in the world. Here the EU should explain to Russia that it isn’t helping to solve the problem with its current strategy.

-          Is there any hope Russia will change its position?

-          Prospects are limited in this case, of course. Russia still has a different understanding of foreign politics. They look at it through the category of influence spheres. We should admit: the EU took insufficient efforts to build cooperation with Russia in the security sphere.

-          Is Russia seriously concerned about a possible violation of Syria's sovereignty? Or is Moscow trying to maintain its military port in Tartus?

-          I don’t think the question is only about the port of Tartus. The question for Russia is withdrawing from the region. Syria and Iran are two themes closely connected to each other. Iran is a Caspian state. And here we face the direct zone of Russian influence.

-          Should the situation in Syria be compared with the developments in Libya before Gaddafi’s overthrow?

-          Not at all. In Libya we observed a serious clash with the military forces and the political elite. That is why it initially seemed that the rebels needed only military aviation and they would change the military situation in their favor. Later it turned out that everything was more complicated, but there was a well-armed and politically-capable opposition. Who would “loan” military aviation in Syria? Who can be supplied with armaments there?

-          Do the military units supporting the regime have better armaments than the supporters of Gaddafi in Libya?

-          Yes. And this is confirmed by the incident with the shot-down Turkish fighter aircraft. It is a difficult task to shoot down a Phantom. Experienced military men work there. If intervention in Syria is undertaken, we should understand what forces would resist. According to the mass media messages, Russia exported land-based anti-ship missiles to Syria. If I was a military man I would tell my government: “We shouldn’t start from small operations, it is too dangerous!” Only wide-scale intervention and weekly bombings could be effective. I cannot see anyone who would risk taking this step.

-          Does the current situation in Syria not provide sufficient grounds for military intervention?

-          No. And there is nobody who is ready to act like in Iraq in 2003, when no decision by the UN Security Council was made.

-          Turkey gathered its partners in NATO to discuss the incident with the shot-down fighter aircraft. Could this be a reason for war?

-          I think consultations and discussions will take place, and in the end a statement will be made which will express sharp concern about the shot-down fighter aircraft. I think the development of a military scenario is impossible in this case.

-          Tehran and Damascus have an agreement on mutual military support in case either side is attacked. Will Iran fight on the Syrian side in case of war?

-          Such agreements have more political than military importance. I doubt the Iranians would take any steps in case of war. But I can imagine they would send their military experts to Syria.