Sergey Markov: Obama encouraged improvement of Russian-Georgian relations

Interview by Maria Sidelnikova. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

Less than a week is left ahead of the presidential elections in the US. At the moment, none of candidates has a significant advantage. According to the last data by YouGov, Barack Obama is supported by 48% registered American voters, Mitt Romney – 46%.

The member of the Public Chamber of Russia, the political analyst, Sergey Markov, told Vestnik Kavkazaa about the upcoming elections in the US, the American-Iranian crisis, and influence on the parliamentary elections in Georgia caused by Obama.

-       What is your prediction on the presidential elections in the US?

-       I think Barack Obama has a great chance to win. It is connected not only with rating and the fact that Obama succeeded in two rounds of debates, but also with some internal kitchen. Many members of the Republican Party call Mitt Romney “a loser.” They don’t believe he will win.

Moreover, Americans have a special system of elections. There are firmly republican or democratic states. It isn’t important for them what rating the candidates have, as they will sent their electors to vote for a certain person. At the same time, there are hesitating states, and the situation depends on them. These states are Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and Florida – and Barack Obama has higher rating there.

Plus, the storm (the American authorities worked effectively) also helped Obama to get additional votes. I think Barack Obama will win.

-       How can the results of the elections influence Russian-American relations?

-       Positively. The point is that Mitt Romney has no foreign political views. If he won, he would probably give the power to those who ruled and dealt with foreign policy under George Bush, i.e. a group of neo-conservatives. It would be a tragedy.

I think the modern world has two main enemies – al-Qaeda and American neo-conservatives; the third is drug addiction. Influence by neo-conservatives is highly negative even for America. They are enemies for America too. Of course, in due time it will be reconsidered. Americans will judge neo-conservatives just like they judged Marxism.

However, Mitt Romney could give the control over foreign political resources to some other forces – then, the situation would be not so bad. But Romney’s Cold War views are inspired by these aides.

Barack Obama has almost no aides with mentality of Cold War. Even if we look at Bzhezinski, he hates Russia not because of Cold War, but because he is a Polish nationalist. Moreover, Obama doesn’t have the heritage of Cold War himself; most of his aides are free from stereotypes. They consider Russia not as an enemy, but as a strategic partner.

“Restarting” was initiated by Barack Obama: elimination of all negative moments which appeared under George Bush and formation of a new positive agenda. I think Obama is able to define this and even solve the problems which seemed to be insoluble – the missile defense or conflicts in the post-Soviet space. It was Obama who said that the Ukrainian people should elect whom they want and nobody could impose the choice on them. But for Obama the opposition wouldn’t win in Georgia, as Obama actually forbade Saakashvili to falsify elections and repress the opposition. By the way, Saakashvili planned arrests and repressions. But Washington headed by Obama strictly forbade Saakashvili doing so, and thus he improved relations between Georgia and Russia. I look at Russian-American relations positively after Obama’s victory.

-       What about American-Iranian relations?

-       I see that Americans are not in a hurry to bomb Iran. Americans think many years will pass ahead this, and it is time to cooperate with Russia and China to block the military program of Iran. And here our strategic interests correlate. Another question is that we have different tactics. The US believes that Iran should be threatened. We think that if they threaten Iran, it would try to create nuclear armament to protect its security. Instead of threatening we have to make Iran feel secure, and in this case Tehran would reject its nuclear program. Therefore, regarding Iran, we need pulling America on our tactical position, considering the common strategic vision.

Moreover, Americans wanted to prevent Iran’s regional influence. I think it is impossible as Iran is a leading Shiite country, while Shiites are numerous in other countries. It would be a mistake. I believe the US is too influenced by Saudi Arabia. We have to show them that America must not be a puppet in hands of Saudi Arabia.

There is also Israel which wants to bomb Iran, but the US prevents it. To bomb Iran, Israel needs special vacuum bombs of deep capacity. They are very expensive, American won’t simply give them. Furthermore, to bomb Iran and return home Israeli aircrafts need in-flight refueling, they need navigation on the Iranian territory. Israel can gain it only from Americans who don’t want to give this. Therefore, America is a constraining factor today, which prevents appearance of a big war against Iran.

I think if Obama wins, this policy will be continued.