Ivan Safranchuk: “Russia expects the USA to make “homework””

Interview by Daria Melikhova exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

Deputy Director of the Institute of Contemporary International Studies of the Diplomatic Academy Ivan Safranchuk described his vision of the possible options for the development of relations between Russia and Georgia. In his view, the most likely outcome is the optimistic one and, after all, the normalization of bilateral relations. But the contentious issues related to the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Georgia's intention to join NATO remain a stumbling block and can cause a deterioration in relations. The expert believes that Russia and Georgia need a calm period without provocation, external interference and different kinds of conflict.

He also commented on the negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama at the G-8 summit in Belfast on the situation in Syria. The sides have many disputes on this problem and it is difficult to speak about a compromise in the near future. But only cooperation and search for mutual settlements can stop the violence in the region, the expert thinks.

-    Please tell us about the direction of current development of the relationship between Russia and Georgia.

-    Relations between Russia and Georgia are moving in a positive direction. However, the pace at which this happens is largely due to the complicated history of these relations in recent years. Unfortunately, the basis of differences, namely, the problem of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, remains, and working something out in this plan is extremely difficult, because the fundamental decisions are made: Russia has formally recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia. I think that the experts understand how painful the territorial issue is for any Georgian Government. Nevertheless, there are certain realities. These are complex realities, and adapting to these realities is too difficult, so the pace of improvement in bilateral Russian-Georgian relations will be, I think, not very significant, but the main thing is that we are moving in a positive direction of the normalization of bilateral relations.

It is important, I think, to give Russia and Georgia, both at the official level and at the non-state level, i. e. at the level of civil society organizations, public diplomacy, a period of calm relations without any provocation, external interference, so that the two states and two peoples could talk quietly and normalize relations. Because if now again some topics sensitive for bilateral relations, such as Georgia's membership in NATO, some forced variation of this membership, are discussed, I think that the slow progress that has already started might just fade down.

-    Please comment on the talks between Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin on Syria. What can be expected from the meeting?

-    Apparently, Russia and the USA see the situation differently. As time goes by it becomes more and more obvious that a romantic view on Syria, which used to be typical for Western capitals – Paris, London, Washington, and Berlin in less extent – fails. Everybody wants to back progressive young people who are fighting for values of freedom and democracy. However, it appears that the ranks of these progressive young people are thin, and behind them one can see very cruel and not progressive people who are actually a part of regional crime and global terrorist groups.

Realizing that the longer the conflict lasts, the more significant these radical forces become is gradually coming to minds of Western politicians, including those in Washington. It seems they begin to think about an opportunity for peaceful negotiations between the government and the healthy opposition in Syria.

Obviously, such negotiations can be successful only if all foreign players, first of all Russia, the USA, major regional players, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, support the negotiations. As the region has many American allies – Turkey, Saudi Arabia – it seems the USA should do some “homework” for supporting the political settlement.

Russia is waiting for the USA to do the “homework”; but unfortunately, time is passing quickly. The conflict in Syria is touching on foundations of the society, I would like to emphasize this. During the conflict thousands of common people were killed, including the best representatives of the Syrian nation. Doctors, teachers are dying. They are being killed by radical groups who capture a residential area and slaughter doctors, teachers, engineers, i.e. intelligent people. From this point of view, even if the conflict is settled, the Syrian society will be thrown far away. But the conflict must be stopped for prevention of complete extinction of the Syrian people.