Alexander Karavayev: “An example of the developments took place after the historic meeting between Putin and Heydar Aliyev”

Interview by Vestnik Kavkaza

Today Vladimir Putin will visit Baku. Vestnik Kavkaza interviewed the deputy general director of the IAC MSU, political scientist Alexander Karavayev, on the visit and prospects of the bilateral cooperation.

-          The importance of the visit is high. It is a historic visit. Apparently we see the beginning of a new stage of relations. It is confirmed by the delegation which comes with Putin. It includes the most important officials of the Russian political elite – the defense minister, the minister of economic development, the EMERCOM’s head. The presence of Igor Sechin means that the interests of Rosneft in the visit are obvious. All this confirms a new stage in bilateral relations. An example of the developments took place after the historic meeting between Putin and Heydar Aliyev 13 years ago.

-          What are prospects for Russian-Azeri relations?

-          Trade and economic relations between Russia and Azerbaijan reached a certain peak of the growth. The economies are incomparable. Usually trade and economic ties between such different economies stagnate, if they are not stimulated by various projects and initiatives. The practice of Russian economic cooperation with many countries, not only in the CIS shows it. To fill the cooperation with new projects, a very close attention is needed, new ideas from the authorities. Such ideas have been born, and we see their implementation during various meetings. For example, Igor Sechin’s visit to Baku in early summer. The meeting between ministers of transport. We can hope that after the visit new impetus will take place in this direction. For example, the construction of a new automobile bridge across the Samur River has been discussed.

Military cooperation became a separate theme in bilateral relations. The Russian delegation includes representatives of Rosoboronexport. This direction will be developed as well. There is a hint about this – the Russian fleet has called at the Baku port.

There are many medium level projects without which relations cannot be full-fledged and cannot attract wide layers of the medium and minor business. It is about mutual investments and joint producing. There are examples of Azerbaijani investments in the North Caucasus. There are various investment projects into transport infrastructure and logistics. In Yekaterinburg a memorandum was signed that a major logistic center will be there for transportation of Azerbaijani vegetables at markets of the Central Ural.

New initiatives in construction and cooperation in the sphere of industry are interesting. For example, Azerbaijani metro builders founded a joint enterprise together with their Russian and Belarusian partners. Metro builders will provide construction of Moscow metro to which 1 trillion rubles will be invested to 2020-2021. It is an example of new cooperation too.

So, if we look at the whole spectrum of cooperation, we will find examples of new projects in the banking and financial spheres. Many, even minor initiatives wait for their implementation due to such meetings of the top level.

-          Will the theme of the upcoming elections in Azerbaijan be touched on?

-          I wouldn’t connect the visit directly with this theme. There are many interpretations, but I believe it is a modern trend among political scientists to say that the visit is a certain support of Aliyev in the upcoming elections. Of course it is so, but it is not the main goal of the visit. Aliyev is not a young politician who needs support from Russia or foreign politician to legitimatise his regime. We are not in 2003 when he came to office. He has no problems which could confuse the power vertical in Azerbaijan. When Putin comes to Ukraine, the arguments are reasonable – in Ukraine or Belarus, Putin is a popular politician, maybe as popular as their current presidents. There are historic and ethnic ties between our countries. We can say that a significant part of our populations is common. Putin’s visit to these countries really influences internal political life in the countries. In Azerbaijan the situation is absolutely different. Russia is not so popular there and the Russian leader is not perceived as a guarantor of stability in Azerbaijan.

The country provides balanced centrist policy. It is ridiculous to think that there is a pro-Russian lobby in the country. There are relations. They are covered at the official level and supported by business. The relations are being naturally formed due to big Azerbaijani Diaspora which lives in Russia. But it is not an element of influence. It doesn’t work and will never do. So, we have no grounds to say that Putin came to support Aliyev as a presidential candidate. It is not so. In the current situation the visit by Putin to Baku is a visit to the most powerful political ally in the region.

He didn’t come either to Armenia or Iran for various reasons. In this context the visit to Baku with such a powerful delegation has a positive character which is objective. Even though we have come contradictions with Azerbaijan, a consensus was found, and the visit appeared to be possible.

-          Will Nagorno-Karabakh be discussed? And how will the visit influence the situation in the South Caucasus?

-          I cannot predict it. Usually Moscow tries separating the tracks – trade and economic cooperation, investments and other economic, cultural, humanitarian issues and the problem of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement. At the same time, public opinion in both Azerbaijan and Armenia expects that presidents of the two countries will pose questions on the topic to Putin. But I don’t think we will witness any breakthroughs. The other thing is that time will tell how Russia’s role will change in the Karabakh process, considering promotion of Russian-Azeri relations. But we can speak about this only after the visit.