Maxim Shevchenko: "Armenia's accession to the Customs Union will help solve the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh"

Interview by Vestnik Kavkaza

Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Armenia, where he once again approved its desire to join the Customs Union and the common economic space. According to Putin, “prospects of integration cooperation are confirmed by growing complementarity of our economies.” Russia is a leading foreign trade partner of Armenia: its share in trade balance is 23.5%. Last year trade turnover increased by more than 20% and reached $1.2 billion. The volume of Russian investments surpassed $3 billion – more than 40% of all foreign investments into Armenian economy. About 1300  Russian companies are working in gas, transport, telecommunication, financial spheres of Armenia – more than 25% of all joint enterprises with foreign investments.

However, experts believe it is not enough to integrate. Maxim Shevchenko, member of the Presidential Council on International Relations, told Vestnik Kavkaza about his view on Eurasian integration of Armenia.

-          What do you think about the results of Putin’s visit to Armenia and its prospects of joining the Customs Union?

-          Frankly, summing it up, of course, it is a political statement, because certainly there will be no economic benefit if Armenia joins the Customs Union. This is a fully subsidized state, which is among, if I am not mistaken, the most catastrophic economies, it is in second place from the end or fourth place on the list. Therefore it is clear that Armenia will be fully subsidized by the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan and other successful countries in the Union.

But there is nothing to worry about, Germany also finances Greece in the European Union. At least it will allow Armenian policy, the Armenian state, to turn away from U.S. subsidies.

Today in Armenia, most of the population live simply on grants sent by the Armenian diaspora in the U.S. or France. So I think that the struggle for Armenia is also an important fight.

-          Can Eurasian integration of Yerevan help in settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem?

-          I think that the accession of Armenia, in particular, will help to advance the search for a constructive solution to the Karabakh issue, which I can see only provided that all refugees can return to Nagorno-Karabakh, to Azerbaijan. By the way, I recall that at least 400,000 Azerbaijanis also fled Armenia. At least, the return of Azerbaijanis to Nagorno-Karabakh and then a referendum, perhaps on the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, which will consist of at least two peoples. There are, however, also Russians - three peoples will be its foundation. The formation of a Caucasian "Switzerland," I do not see why not. When France and Germany fought against each other on the territory of Switzerland, French-speaking Swiss, German-speaking Swiss and Italian-speaking Swiss established mechanisms of democratic governance. The structure of Nagorno-Karabakh is also Canton-like. There were regions dominated by the Azerbaijanis, there were regions dominated by the Armenians. Without the return of all the people who would like to go back there, we cannot talk about any recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh or discussions of this issue, in my opinion. However, postponing it, undoubtedly increases the risk of military conflict.