Manvel Sarkisyan: "Politicians followed civil society activists"

Interview by David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

Manvel Sarkisyan, Director of the Armenian Center for National and Strategic research, told Vestnik Kavkaza about the changes in the domestic field of Armenia, as well as about the perspectives of Yerevan participating in the integration processes in the context of “resetting” the relations between Russia and the US.

- Do you think that the Yerevan protest on January 18 against the forced introduction of a defined contribution pension system substantially changes domestic policy in Armenia?

- The main substantial difference about this protest is that, alongside young civil society activists, the representatives of the four non-domineering parties (Prosperous Armenia, Armenian National Congress, Heritage and Armenian Revolutionary Federation). Usually, political forces are jealous of any initiative by civil society activists, especially if they are successful. However, this time the political parties were forced to accept the invitation of the civil society initiative “I’m Against It” to take part in the protest. Speaking there, they just had to admit that cooperation of the parties and the civil activists on this concrete issue was forming.

The gathering and the parade were led by the civil society activists, who were followed by the politicians. Taking into consideration foreign experience, I have to mention that such a scenario of civil protest has always been efficient in problem solving, as young peoples are harder to persuade than politicians. Just the fact that such a scenario appeared in Armenia shows us good chances that a powerful, society-controlled protest movement will be formed, and politicians won’t be crucial to it.

During all of the previous year, the social tension was gradually increased by the government itself,  despite serious concerns that what happened on March 1, 2008, would be repeated, which was naturally accompanied by unprecedented outward migration.

- What is your assessment of Yerevan balancing between Moscow and Brussels?

- The failed rapprochement with Europe and the upcoming membership of the Customs Union have divided society into two parts, arousing senseless polemics. The authorities have no intention of organizing discussions of this issue. We were just made to face it, that’s it.

So today no one in Armenia wants to discuss the essence of the matter, everyone just holds their ground. But the confrontation between Moscow and Brussels related to influence in the post-Soviet territory is deeper than it may seem. The Eastern Partnership was brought back, a number of countries refused to associate with the EU, because this idea expired a couple of months ago, after the 5-year program stopped being relevant due to changes in the international situation. In other words, the “reset” turned the Eastern Partnership and all the fuss about the Association Agreement with the EU into a small coin in the game played by the US and Russia. The calm reaction of the US to Armenia’s intention to enter the Customs Union is an echo of new, more important agreements between Russia and the US. For a long time, Obama had been threatening to defeat Syria, and then all of a sudden he concluded an agreement with Moscow about it, which left many players outside, first of all, the Eastern Partnership members and its initiators.

- So the events around Iran and Syria are part of the “reset”?

- To some extent, I think so. The sudden change of Iran’s attitude towards the US, the US changing its attitude towards Turkey can be related to Russia saying yes to the participation in the new projects, to its new role. As for Bashar Assad, he must have had his reasons to hand his chemical arsenals in. We don’t know yet why those shifts in global politics occurred, no one knows what the superpowers have agreed on, but the symptoms already are noticeable. Returning to Armenia, I can say that, having reached an agreement on the global confrontation, the US and Russia might as well have reached an agreement on minor issues. For me, the military reinforcement of Russia in Armenia is to be considered through the prism of new relations in the region, and Iran is in the center of them. Today this country is undergoing rapid development, it launches ballistic rockets, which is both interesting and threatening to everyone. So Russia’s arming Azerbaijan is, first of all, aimed at Iran, not at Armenia, as some people think. At the same time, arming the possible Iranian theater of operations, Russia confines it, reinforcing its troops in Armenia.