Germany doesn't intend to support the initiative of the USA about toughening sanctions against Russia because of the position taken by German businessmen. The chemical giant BASF, the electro-technical concern Siemens, Volkswagen, Adidas and Deutsche Bank have let it be known that they oppose wider economic sanctions against Russia, the Wall Street Journal writes. Berlin political scientist Heiko Langer told to “Vestnik Kavkaza” about the crisis in relations between Russia and the West.
- Mister Langer, how far is Germany ready to go in the sanctions policy against Russia? Is introduction of more rigid sanctions likely from Germany, which could have a crucial impact on German-Russian economic relations?
- In these circumstances Germany won't impose sanctions on Russia alone, and will work together only with other EU countries. The European Union, in turn, on this question will closely coordinate policy with the USA so that a uniform position of the West is presented to the world. In principle, the states of the EU take a more reserved position on sanctions against Russia than the USA. The European Union countries economically are much more closely connected with Russia. Imposing further sanctions against Moscow for Europe means to cut the bough on which you sit. This applies particularly to Germany with its economy strongly focused on exports – the largest in Europe. For this reason only such sanctions which can "touch" Vladimir Putin personally were still imposed, but they didn't cause serious damage either to their own economic interests or the Russian economy.
However, one serious risk nevertheless exists. The present crisis in relations between Russia and the West provoked considerable uncertainty on the financial markets. And in this regard the still fairly soft sanctions of the West are a factor strengthening the crisis. In the first quarter of this year alone exports from Germany to Russia decreased 16% in comparison with the same period last year. In the first quarter of this year exports from Germany to Russia decreased by 16% in comparison with the same period last year. In addition, since the beginning of the Crimean crisis a significant outflow of capital from Russia has been observed, as international financial investors started bringing billions of dollars out of the country. This is economically much more dangerous than the sanctions in themselves. Thus the sanctions policy of the West is unambiguously counterproductive. After all, introducing sanctions means the following: firstly, the party which is exposed to sanctions, that is Russia, according to the plan of the authors of the sanctions, has to change position. Secondly, the party (West) imposing sanctions believes it is surpassing itself from a moral position. But this, taking into account numerous violations of international law – in particular, from the USA and its wars of intervention against "rogue states" – is doubtful. Therefore, it is absolutely no wonder that the majority of the population of Germany rejects sanctions against Russia. Those who actually want to overcome the present crisis have to leave the sanctions spiral and start looking for direct dialogue.
- To what extent, in your opinion, in the policy of Berlin is the Russland-Versteher position (literally – "understanding Russia") strong, about which the German press - supporters of constructive dialogue with the Russian Federation - write daily? Do they have a real impact on the decision-making process in Berlin?
- First of all, I would like to emphasize that the terms "Russland-Versteher" or "Putin-Versteher" in political communication were created with quite a definite purpose. On the people expressing in a public discourse an understanding of the argument of the Russian side, and considering it when forming their own opinion, the cliche of unconditional implementers of the will and supporters of the Russian president is at once imposed. In a political sense, it is a question of weakening self-critical voices in Germany and strengthening the positions of anti-Russian "hardliners". For this reason I will use this term only in its originally-identified value, without identifying myself with Vladimir Putin's identity or his policy. According to my observations, Russland-Versteher is more or less represented in all the political factions. The exception here, probably, is made by the Union 90s/Green faction, in which I can't remember now anybody with a similar position. The opposition "Greens" hold, in my opinion, strong Eurocentric views in their relations with all post-Soviet countries, not just Russia. Such attitudes were felt in the past by Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and especially Belarus. In simple words, the "Greens" operate on the principle: "We know better what is good for you." In my opinion, such a policy in its relations with the transformation of the countries of the former Soviet Union cannot be successful, because it ignores the framework conditions within the societies of these countries. Besides, self-exaltation is not a positive trait. By my own estimates, "Russland-Versteher" makes no more than 20% of German policy, probably even less. They are movable through various motives. For representatives of CDU/CSU economic pragmatism and commercial interests are in first place. Understanding of historical responsibility, and also cultural and personal coherence with the people of Russia play the main role for the SPD and the "Left". Anyway, Russland-Versteher groups in coalition factions aren't strong enough to possess a veto in German policy in relation to the Russian Federation. This can be seen by the fact that the traditionally more friendly to Russia SPD (Socialists), which has the portfolio of the Foreign Ministry, on the "Russian question" quite clearly follows in the wake of the policy of Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel. She, as we know, distances herself from Russia and, obviously, has quite reserved personal relations with Vladimir Putin.
What role does the United States play in shaping German foreign policy in the context of the Ukrainian crisis? Does Washington put pressure on Berlin, or are Germany and the USA uniform in the present policy toward Russia?
- In the current crisis, relations with Russia, I think that the United States are the main "instigators" of the West. This is due to various reasons. The USA and Russia don't have close trade and economic relations and therefore Washington is able to afford to demand more rigid economic sanctions from the West. In addition, President Obama through his clearly-expressed position against Russia and Putin is trying to fix his tarnished image as a national leader and uses widespread anti-Russian reflexes among political factions and the U.S. population for this. To this must be added the U.S. claims to be the world's policeman, which are not denied by Obama, despite the fact that in this matter he is more restrained than his neoconservative predecessor. Barack Obama places great importance on the active involvement in this process of the western allies – not least to solve the problem of the high military expenses of the USA.
But the course of the crisis round the events in Ukraine showed that the subject of Russia has revived in the West old templates of thinking and behaviour. I think that the Kremlin didn't expect this on such a scale. The situation has shown that competition with Russia is a consolidating factor for the West. Yes, for the western partners in their policy in relation to Russia, obviously, there exists certain conflicts of opinion on concrete details – for example, on the question of more rigid sanctions against Moscow. But the presence in the West of a unified concept in its confrontational stance in the current crisis is just as little in doubt as NATO's military strategy aims in Eastern Europe. NATO's intention to further encircle and put pressure on Russia may be exacerbated in the future as a result. And I do not see a fundamental dissonance between the U.S. president and the Federal Chancellor. At the same time, Angela Merkel, of course, would like to minimize damage to the German economy. Growing interest in Berlin in expanding economic ties with China, against this background, can be understood as a strategy to compensate for the long-term consequences in case of deterioration of relations with Russia.
