Interview by Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia signed association agreements with the European Union. For Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, which founded the Eurasian Union, it means the loss of three of its potential members. In the context of these events, many people are discussing the invitation to traditionally non-aligned Azerbaijan to join the Eurasian Union – a country which rejects association with the EU and is the absolute economic leader of the South Caucasus. Does Azerbaijan have Eurasian prospects? What are they? Heiko Langner, a Berlin political scientist, one of the few German experts who understand the specificities of South Caucasian politics, answers Vestnik Kavkaza’s questions.
- Today many experts and mass media are discussing the possibility of Azerbaijan’s accession to the Eurasian Union. How can you comment on the talks?
- In recent weeks we have witnessed an intensification of Moscow diplomatic activity, expressed by numerous visits to Baku by top Russian politicians. Among them were the Russian Foreign Minister, the speaker of the State Duma, and a vice-premier. This is no accident, and it should be considered in the context of strategic ideas of the Kremlin about building relations with the other real potential partners.
The signing of the association agreements between the EU and Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova is actually a deep penetration by the West into post-Soviet space. The EU is connected with the USA and they penetrated into Russia’s sphere of influence. In other words, the USA sent the EU into the Russian sphere of influence. Even the merger of Crimea cannot mask that such developments damage the geopolitical interests of Russia. In this context Moscow tried to minimize its losses to implement the ambitious project of the Eurasian Union. The process is getting a new dynamic after the signing of the association agreement between the EU and Kiev, Chisinau and Tbilisi.
- Why is it important for Russia that Azerbaijan could join the Eurasian Union?
- There are several reasons for this. First of all, Azerbaijan is an attractive partner due to its economic potential, rich energy resources, and important geostrategic situation. For Russia, the participation of Azerbaijan in the Eurasian project could compensate for the detachment of Georgia.
Secondly, Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Union would be senseless if it had no common borders with other members of the union. Armenia and Russia have no common border, and thus the trade exchange between the countries will still be liable to customs duties by third countries. If Azerbaijan were a member of the Eurasian economic space, the problem would be solved.
Thirdly, Russia considers Azerbaijan to be its traditional friend and ally, and it wants to improve relations with it. In the past there were many such sincere messages from Russian officials. Azerbaijan has a positive view of Russia in general, while President Ilham Aliyev is respected by Russian political elites and the Russian population. All these factors turn Azerbaijan into a natural addressee for invitation to the Eurasian Union.
- What is the role of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the possible membership of Azerbaijan in the Eurasian Union?
- The conflict is an obvious obstacle on the path to Baku’s membership in the Eurasian Union. And a solution should be found. Moscow realizes this clearly. And recent statements by Sergei Glazyev, the Russian Presidential aide, are an important sign that probably soon certain progress will appear. In the past Russia has many times emphasized that it wanted to settle the conflict, but it made Armenia loose-handed and controlled the conflict in geopolitical categories, as it matched its interests. However, after the Crimean crisis and the detachment of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova from Moscow’s sphere of influence, a new situation arose and it demanded new approaches.
The Kremlin understands that Azerbaijan will demand Russia’s support in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, considering its possible membership in the Eurasian Union. In fact, it is the only opportunity for Baku to get its territories back.
Armenia understands this as well. From the military point of view, Armenia won the Nagorno-Karabakh war, and it was psychologically important for the army. Changes in Moscow’s political course in the issue could cause reconsideration of Armenia’s military victory. That’s why Armenia is worried about it at the moment. But a settlement in which Armenia would maintain all occupied territories and Azerbaijan would take nothing is impossible. And of course that won’t happen if Russia wants to make Azerbaijan its strategic partner. So only a compromise can settle the conflict.
To be continued
