On August 9 the Russian president met in Sochi with his Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts. During their meeting the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia focused on bilateral cooperation in various fields, including the energy industry and investment. In the framework of his meeting with the Armenian president President Putin discussed mutual political and trade ties with his Armenian counterpart, as well as bilateral cooperation in the humanitarian sphere. The parties also focused on Armenia's integration into the Eurasian Economic Union. It is not clear whether the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents will meet with each other or not. The situation surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is aggravated by unprecedented tensions on the front line. Vestnik Kavkaza discussed the issue with Azerbaijani political analyst and lawmaker Rasim Musabekov.
- Why, in your opinion, has the conflict intensified?
- First of all, the escalation was not caused by some accidental events. The skirmishes on the border have been taking place since the beginning of the year. The Armenians are suffering unprecedented losses. It is absolutely clear that the recent tensions were caused by the Armenians. The fact that both the president and the prime minister left the country at the time proves it. The Armenians have always said that they will avenge the losses. However, in response to the attack Azerbaijan has prepared its military machinery and drones. This has showed that a new phase of an actual military operation is possible. The Armenians panicked. President Sargsyan left for Belgium, where he met with French President Francois Hollande. It seems like he was looking for political support. The Armenian president also met with foreign ambassadors. Still, it is evident that Armenia is responsible for the recent tensions and I believe it should be punished.
- Why did the Armenians organize this act of sabotage?
- I think adventurers believed that they could send a group of saboteurs, and, when Azerbaijan decides to launch a military operation, persuade foreign powers to make Azerbaijan stop. Thus they would punish Azerbaijan and look heroic to Armenian society, while there would be no actual consequences. Moreover, I think Armenia is trying to induce the international community to force Azerbaijan to agree to maintain the status quo. Armenia wants foreign mediators to make Azerbaijan promise that it will not use force, that a military operation is impossible. This would secure the status quo, which is favourable to Armenia.
- Do the recent tensions on the Azerbaijani-Armenian contact line have something to do with the increasing confrontation between Russia and western powers?
- I don't think so. There is a conspiracy theory, according to which Russia is interested in increasing tensions in Palestine, Iraq and Karabakh so that the Ukrainian conflict is forgotten. I don't believe in that. The Russian Foreign Ministry reacted immediately as the tensions increased in Karabakh. It was Russia who suggested separate talks with the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders. I believe if a meeting of the two presidents is organized, it will decrease tensions in the region.
- How is Russia interested in a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, taking into consideration the worsening relations with the West?
- Let us be clear. This conflict is not going to be resolved any time soon. Even if the parties are indeed ready to come to an agreement, the actual process of the conflict resolution will take 10 more years. The thing is that the risk of a new war is increasing as the conflict remains frozen for decades. So your question should be "how is Russia interested in progress in the Karabakh talks?" I believe no one is interested in an actual military conflict. I suppose the country which secures progress in peace talks will be able to enjoy some additional rights in the region.
- What should be expected from the Sochi meeting?
- I don't know what to say. First of all, I'm not certain that any successful discussion will take place so that the presidents of Azerbaijan and Aremnia will be able to meet with each other. Such a meeting may be organized only by President Putin himself. Let me remind you that in late December the two presidents met, but the agenda for the next meeting has not been agreed yet. Armenia insists that Azerbaijan should agree to the secession of Karabakh and a part of Azerbaijani territory. Only after that are the Armenians ready to negotiate the liberation of occupied Azerbaijani districts. For Azerbaijan, such an approach is unacceptable. The Madrid principles say that Armenia should first liberate five occupied districts and allow the return of refugees. Then the status of Karabakh can be negotiated. However, the Armenians are sabotaging this process. They claim that they agree to the plans suggested by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, but Azerbaijani does not. In fact, it's absolutely vice versa.
