Karabakh: neither war, nor peace

Interview by Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza

Georgia is paying special attention to the recent developments in Karabakh. The South Caucasus is a very integrated region and a resumption of a military conflict and especially an actual war would have a major impact on all countries of the region. The Georgian government, like the international community in general, recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and believes Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven neighbouring districts of Azerbaijan occupied by Armenia to be a natural part of the Azerbaijani state. Azerbaijan insists that both Armenians and Azerbaijanis may leave in peace in Karabakh, but stresses that the Armenian forces should vacate the region. Armenia does not recognize the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state in its own right. However the recent tensions, which resulted in the deaths of several dozen people, send a troublesome signal to all.

Vestnik Kavkaza discussed the issue with Georgian political analyst Ramaz Sakvarelidze.

- Is there any chance that the Karabakh conflict can be resolved peacefully?

- Any problem can be solved through political measures, if all the involved parties are ready to find a way out. In this case I am talking about Azerbaijan and Armenia, the two countries involved in the peace process, as well as mediators, such as Russia. I believe Russia has a great influence on both countries. A lot depends on Moscow.

- What, according to your opinion, caused the recent escalation of the conflict?

- I am certain that Armenia will continue its efforts to provoke violence, because the Azerbaijani military forces are becoming stronger and stronger and the Armenians believe the sooner military conflict resumes the better, because otherwise Azerbaijani may become too powerful. Armenia is trying to prevent Azerbaijan from becoming even stronger.

- Does it mean that the reason is simply the fact that Azerbaijan's military budget equals Armenia's total annual budget?

- Indeed Azerbaijan spends a lot of money on defense, this figure is in fact greater than Armenia's total budget. Armenia cannot tolerate this fact. It would be naive to expected such an attitude. The provocations are quite a natural response in such a case.

- And what are the political causes? Some say the provocation was organized in response to criticism voiced by Belarus and Kazakhstan, which question Armenia's policy towards Karabakh in the framework of the country's integration into the Eurasian Economic Union. During the last summit President Nazarbayev said that one "should not anger Baku."

- I think the Eurasian project is a possible explanation of this process. Still, I don't think that it's enough to provoke an actual military conflict in the region.

- Is it possible that the Ukrainian crisis had some kind of effect on Armenia's policy in the region, that has spurred Armenia to provoke an escalation of the conflict?

- I think it was a more influential matter than the Eurasian project. The thing is that Russia is now focusing on the events in Ukraine. The Armenians understand what this may lead to. So the Ukrainian crisis may indeed cause a resumption of military conflict in the Caucasus.

- What about the international mediators - Russia, the US and France - who serve as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group? Are they still interested in the status quo?

- We see that these powers are doing their best to maintain the status quo in the region. They are indeed worried and don't want a resumption of the military conflict. In such case this fire would hardly ever be extinguished. However, in politics promises are often broken. I hope Russia, as a major participant of this process, does not want a resumption of war. I believe Russia does not want to face such a challenge, especially taking into consideration its relations with western powers, which are changing for the worse.

- Will the meeting of the three presidents held in Sochi have an effect on the situation?

- There were many such meetings. It don't think this one was crucial. Still, it may produce some results.