Interview by Vestnik Kavkaza Editor-in-Chief Maria Sidelnikova
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in the Annual Address to the Federal Assembly yesterday that relations with Europe and the U.S. will not be scrapped, traditional ties with the south of the American Continent, Africa and the Middle East will be restored and extended.
Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor-in-chief of the journal Russia in Global Affairs, has expressed his outlook on the situation in the Middle East in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza Editor-in-Chief Maria Sidelnikova.
- What deep processes are happening in the Middle East, in your opinion?
- The system of statehood formed in two stages in the 20th century is dissolving in the Middle East. Firstly, it is a result of the disappearance of the Ottoman Empire and other empires: the French, the British. After WWI and WWII, there were two leaps. A certain Middle East institutional “design” was formed, proving to be surprisingly firm. In fact, it existed until the second decade of the 21st century. Even such shocks as the wars in the Gulf, the first American war, then the invasion of Iraq, surprising as they were, did not shatter the “design.” But at some moment, it started breaking. The infamous Arab Spring is one of the manifestations.
Another manifestation is the expansion of alternative forms of socio-political activity. On the one hand, there is the success of the Muslim Brotherhood, which did not become a normal political force, because opposition in Egypt and countries of the region turned out to be too strong, not because it could not. As a result, the organization blended into the landscape, which only worsened it and created turmoil for everyone. Another manifestation is even more outrageous. It is Islamic State, which no one knows what to do with. Socio-political models are being reconsidered. This system of secular states relying on a powerful, authoritarian leader, has either ran out of steam or needs serious corrections. We have seen it in Egypt. In places where the system has not been corrected, statehood is falling apart, just like in Libya. Syria risks taking the same path.
It is just proliferation of the borders that world states artificially outlined according to their interests and templates. When changes within societies and changes in the external situation start, certain interactions, the pendulum starts swinging faster.
All this in conditions when no one recanted the foreign interests, which are often chaotic and sometimes appear simply pointless. We can add here a religious schism on the edge of a war within Islam, not just tensions. Wherever you look here, every factor is fraught with such overheating, that the spume is spreading to the South Caucasus and to the North momentarily.
- Considering that the rules in the region are changing so fast, who is playing first violin now?
- In this situation, the orchestra has ended up without a conductor. The range of instruments is the same. First violin, second violin, double bass, percussion. There used to be two conductors who got into a fight over the orchestra. Then the U.S. became the conductor. That conductor is controlling mindlessly, waving the stick in different directions now, leaving the regional players unaware of what he wants. Moreover, the classical symphony orchestra has suddenly been joined by a saxophone player who does not read sheet music or understand it at all. Consequently, all the violins are starting to tweedle the way they like, a cacophony results.
- What is your vision of the role of Islamic State, what is the goal of the organization?
- I prefer the often-heard interpretation that ISIS is some prototype of Islamic reformation. Some Savonarolas calling for destruction of the decrepit church because it betrayed God’s Commandments, it needs to be taken down and a new faith should be formed. We know from European history that Savonarolas usually end up pretty badly after doing a lot. Then, they are still followed by Martin Luthers. I understand the indecorum of my comparisons, but I think that ISIS is a prototype of some new type of political and religious force that will appear in the Middle East. This radical, cruel but promising force, destroying the model that used to satisfy everyone.
ISIS is clearing the scene for a more moderate ISIS that will try to set some rules and follow them. It seems so to me.
However, foreign forces, the U.S. and representatives of the regimes ISIS is trying to crush, would be unlikely to sit idly by and watch how their positions are undermined.
At this moment, it feels as though no one knows what to do. Because this combination of fanatical devotion to the idea, powerful material resources, high military level and shattering of the system of relations create an absolutely crushing effect. So far, everything is spinning around forceful suppression, but there is no evidence that it is possible.
- What do you think about the opinion that the Middle East may become the center of a global war? What role for Russia do you see in the current situation?
- I think that a global war is simply impossible. Although many conditions of the stability of the second half of the 20th century have been shattered and even disappeared. But the main pillars - the nuclear weapons possessed by the largest countries, which play the role of a powerful containment factor – remain.
If there weren't any, who knows how the situation in the Middle East and Ukraine would be developing. The level of mutual hostilities around Ukraine is so high that we would have probably gone for some WWI-like war without the containment factor.
Nonetheless, I cannot imagine a global war today. The economic interdependence is many times greater than ever.
On the one hand, in the general spectrum, we can expect an increase in the number of regional but serious conflicts. Something like the Ukrainian scenario, when everything starts from the internal background and then chaotic interference from beyond happens and everything reaches the next level. It may happen in Africa, in the Far East, not only in Eurasia, in Europe.
On the other hand, concerning the Middle East, we should expect its transformation into some proliferating zone of chaos which big countries will try to stop at first, then try to abstain from it, localize it. It is a very big threat, but it is still not the global war we imagine according to experience of the 20th century.
Interview by Vestnik Kavkaza Editor-in-Chief Maria SidelnikovaRussian President Vladimir Putin said in the Annual Address to the Federal Assembly yesterday that relations with Europe and the U.S. will not be scrapped, traditional ties with the south of the American Continent, Africa and the Middle East will be restored and extended.Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor-in-chief of the journal Russia in Global Affairs, has expressed his outlook on the situation in the Middle East in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza Editor-in-Chief Maria Sidelnikova.- What deep processes are happening in the Middle East, in your opinion?- The system of statehood formed in two stages in the 20th century is dissolving in the Middle East. Firstly, it is a result of the disappearance of the Ottoman Empire and other empires: the French, the British. After WWI and WWII, there were two leaps. A certain Middle East institutional “design” was formed, proving to be surprisingly firm. In fact, it existed until the second decade of the 21st century. Even such shocks as the wars in the Gulf, the first American war, then the invasion of Iraq, surprising as they were, did not shatter the “design.” But at some moment, it started breaking. The infamous Arab Spring is one of the manifestations.Another manifestation is the expansion of alternative forms of socio-political activity. On the one hand, there is the success of the Muslim Brotherhood, which did not become a normal political force, because opposition in Egypt and countries of the region turned out to be too strong, not because it could not. As a result, the organization blended into the landscape, which only worsened it and created turmoil for everyone. Another manifestation is even more outrageous. It is Islamic State, which no one knows what to do with. Socio-political models are being reconsidered. This system of secular states relying on a powerful, authoritarian leader, has either ran out of steam or needs serious corrections. We have seen it in Egypt. In places where the system has not been corrected, statehood is falling apart, just like in Libya. Syria risks taking the same path.It is just proliferation of the borders that world states artificially outlined according to their interests and templates. When changes within societies and changes in the external situation start, certain interactions, the pendulum starts swinging faster.All this in conditions when no one recanted the foreign interests, which are often chaotic and sometimes appear simply pointless. We can add here a religious schism on the edge of a war within Islam, not just tensions. Wherever you look here, every factor is fraught with such overheating, that the spume is spreading to the South Caucasus and to the North momentarily.- Considering that the rules in the region are changing so fast, who is playing first violin now?- In this situation, the orchestra has ended up without a conductor. The range of instruments is the same. First violin, second violin, double bass, percussion. There used to be two conductors who got into a fight over the orchestra. Then the U.S. became the conductor. That conductor is controlling mindlessly, waving the stick in different directions now, leaving the regional players unaware of what he wants. Moreover, the classical symphony orchestra has suddenly been joined by a saxophone player who does not read sheet music or understand it at all. Consequently, all the violins are starting to tweedle the way they like, a cacophony results.- What is your vision of the role of Islamic State, what is the goal of the organization?- I prefer the often-heard interpretation that ISIS is some prototype of Islamic reformation. Some Savonarolas calling for destruction of the decrepit church because it betrayed God’s Commandments, it needs to be taken down and a new faith should be formed. We know from European history that Savonarolas usually end up pretty badly after doing a lot. Then, they are still followed by Martin Luthers. I understand the indecorum of my comparisons, but I think that ISIS is a prototype of some new type of political and religious force that will appear in the Middle East. This radical, cruel but promising force, destroying the model that used to satisfy everyone.ISIS is clearing the scene for a more moderate ISIS that will try to set some rules and follow them. It seems so to me.However, foreign forces, the U.S. and representatives of the regimes ISIS is trying to crush, would be unlikely to sit idly by and watch how their positions are undermined.At this moment, it feels as though no one knows what to do. Because this combination of fanatical devotion to the idea, powerful material resources, high military level and shattering of the system of relations create an absolutely crushing effect. So far, everything is spinning around forceful suppression, but there is no evidence that it is possible.- What do you think about the opinion that the Middle East may become the center of a global war? What role for Russia do you see in the current situation?- I think that a global war is simply impossible. Although many conditions of the stability of the second half of the 20th century have been shattered and even disappeared. But the main pillars - the nuclear weapons possessed by the largest countries, which play the role of a powerful containment factor – remain.If there weren't any, who knows how the situation in the Middle East and Ukraine would be developing. The level of mutual hostilities around Ukraine is so high that we would have probably gone for some WWI-like war without the containment factor.Nonetheless, I cannot imagine a global war today. The economic interdependence is many times greater than ever.On the one hand, in the general spectrum, we can expect an increase in the number of regional but serious conflicts. Something like the Ukrainian scenario, when everything starts from the internal background and then chaotic interference from beyond happens and everything reaches the next level. It may happen in Africa, in the Far East, not only in Eurasia, in Europe.On the other hand, concerning the Middle East, we should expect its transformation into some proliferating zone of chaos which big countries will try to stop at first, then try to abstain from it, localize it. It is a very big threat, but it is still not the global war we imagine according to experience of the 20th cent
