Interview by Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov on a visit to Moscow did not rule out cooperation between Baku and the Eurasian Economic Union after settlement of the territorial dispute with Armenia. 'The presence of territories occupied by Armenia does not allow us to co-exist in the Customs Union. If Armenia withdraws its forces, opens its borders, if the situation normalizes, an economic element between Armenia and Azerbaijan takes place, who knows what will happen tomorrow,' Mammadyarov noted.
Experts believe that economic interests could have affected the elites' eagerness to step up the conflict resolution process. In an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza, Professor Wilfried Furman of Potsdam University has given his insight into the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the historical tragedies of the region and the new political realities.
- Azerbaijan is readying itself for a major international event – the European Games. What is your vision of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia in this context?
- Every guest arriving in the country gains understanding of the dangerous situation between the countries, a threat to the stability of the whole region. However, Azerbaijan and Armenia may quickly form tolerable relations, possibly the best in the last 100 years.
- How can such a miracle happen?
- The problem is that the space for maneuver is constantly narrowing. It is happening regardless of the Armenian political elites' will. In case of the occupied Azerbaijani territories, we are not talking about some 'liberation', it is harsh occupation that will never be recognized by the international community in the future. The aggravating political and economic environment around Armenia forces it to concentrate on 'specialized' work, like a commercial enterprise, in other words, its state territory, and return the 'additional' territories. The faster this happens, the better it will be for the Armenian people. Now there is still an opportunity to negotiate other issues, for example, ones associated with de-occupation of reparations to Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan will make concessions to avoid the fall of the Republic of Armenia. No one is interested in the total distabilization of Armenia, Azerbaijan included. Otherwise, Armenian people will suffer a lot. They are already suffering from the 'handleless suitcase', or the so-called Nagorno-Karabakh Republic imposed by the political elite of the country. The very same elite will probably hurry to join its so-called 'Diaspora' in France or the US together with all its assets and property.
- Why did you put the word 'Diaspora' in quotation marks?
- There is the independent Republic of Armenia. 'Foreign Armenians' or French with Armenian origins live in Paris, for instance. Perhaps the notion 'Diaspora' implies emigrants who have nowhere to go and who lay territorial claims to each country of stay. But in that case, it implies a permanent discreet declaration of war. 'Foreign Armenians', living in welfare, transfering direct investments to Nagorno-Karabakh create independence of Armenia from them. They encourage the policy of latent violence with their actions under continuing fanaticization and dangerous conduct and growing poverty of 'normal citizerns' living in Armenia. Young people go abroad as soon as possible. Thus, they snatch the future from the homeland living in their hearts.
- What should the Armenian political elites take into account?
- They must understand that the times when territories could be claimed via invasions, expulsions and murders ended in 1945. Foreign Armenians are robust lobbyists in media structures but obviously poor life advisors in the homeland. Swimming in baths of champagne in France and the US, they urge those Armenian citizens living in poverty 'to be enduring at any cost.' The ruling elites in Armenia will start realizing that they bear the responsibility for the welfare and happiness of their people only if they become democratic. In other case, we will see growing socio-political instability with a constant economic tumble. Armenia will become another country in the destabilization zone from Ukraine to Somalia.
- Your position is somewhat contradicting the debates in Western media and parliaments in light of the 100th anniversary of the well-known events in the Ottoman Empire, where Armenians suffered.
- I cannot add anything to the discussions around the events of 1915, many politicians and scientists have already made their input about it. Indisputably, the discussions were very needed. But injustice lived through, even genocide, does not give anyone the right to mass murders, vengeance and genocide. There cannot be any reciprocal paybacks. At the same time, the history of the events happening on the territory of modern Azerbaijan needs studying. Those who give it a closer look will learn about other mass murders and cruelties: ones committed by Armenians against Azerbaijanis.
- How can the historical context be related to the narrowing room for maneuver of modern Armenia?
- Of course, references to history alone are not enough to understand that we need peace without violence, peaceful co-existence, freedom. But we need to learn lessons from historical catastrophes entailing mass murders, genocides and expulsions. At the same time, in an historical context, it becomes clear that Armenia cannot continue realizing its traditional political strategy. Otherwise, it will sink itself.
- What has changed?
- Briefly: the demographic development of Armenia and the interests of its patron have changed. History shows the same scenario Armenia follows. Disorders, terrorist provocations and mass murders followed by expulsions have been preceding every striving of Azerbaijan for independence. It happened so in March 1918, before the foundation of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic (29.05.1991), just as starting with the events preceding the restoration of Azerbaijan's independence (18.10.1991) in the form of systematic occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh, continue today. Every time, it was about taking over cities and regions mostly populated by Azerbaijanis (for example, khanates) or at least prevention of their indisputable accession to Azerbaijan. In the case of Nagorno-Karabakh and other districts, the actions were systemically conducted until so-called ethnic cleansing, and the goal is still pursued with active employment of violence to prevent Azerbaijanis from realizing the right to return home militarily. If in 1918 (as 'vengeance' for 1915) Armenians started bloody massacres of Azerbaijanis with relatively small territorial occupation, the Nagorno-Karabakh case was peculiar for more 'professional' murders, Armenian nationalists resorted to true genocide. Obviously, in 70 years, they have learned a lot, from Stalin in particular.
The policy of expulsions and murders has been used even when domination (in per cent composition) in the region was needed, as, for example, it happened with the Erivan Khanate during the tsarist times. Russian statistical sources documented a numerical superiority of the Azerbaijanis in the regions. Possibly, the statistics served for identification of potentially 'unpeaceful regions' and eruption of ethnic conflicts? In the context of the tsarist population policy, the statistics may be interpreted as wishes for changes in regions demographically dominated by Azerbaijanis. The following cases of violence were obviously backed by the policy of the tsarist empire and served its interests. The tsar used Armenians as an instrument, the latter were eager to take the role, pursuing the goal of their cultural, and eventually political, autonomy. The Armenian policy of expulsions and mass murders followed be settlement in desolate territories was achieveable in those times, because Armenians were moving to Trans-Caucasus from Persia, Turkey and other countries en masse. Russia acted as an empire, patronizing Armenians and giving them protection to a large extent, which was attracting Armenians to the region.
However, such a policy is no longer realized today. There is not in any way sufficient migration to Armenia observable, young citizens of Armenia leave the country as soon as possible. Armenia today is a country of immigrant exodus. The problem is absolutely not in the dislike of young people for their country. The mass migration is a consequence of, on the one hand, the political situation in the country and, on the other hand, the expansionist dreams of foreign Armenians. For the sake of the illegally occupied territories, the future and the welfare of Armenians in Armenia were sactificed. Literally, when the Armenian military serve and die on the frontline of the so-called Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.
With each young man, Armenia loses its deficient (and quite mobile) human capital and cultural and political understanding all over the world. The worldwide compassion towards Armenians that appeared in religious and historical contexts is waning. The upcoming European Games in Azerbaijan and many other high-scale events and congresses held in the country intensify the process, even despite the anniversary events in light of the events of 1915.
- What factors conduce the waning of compassion towards Armenia all over the world?
- Since 1991, the policy of Armenia has been violating international law and, eventually, constantly destabilizing the region. This is clear. But independent observers are realizing that the policy of Armenia is also aimed against its own people. Not only does it weaken the economic development and real income of its population, curtailing its joy and welfare, it also leads to a sustainable slowing down of development of the civil society. All this violates the constitutional purposes of any government.
The policy puts its own people into a socio-political cage. Whole regions of Armenia have already fallen into desolation and appear as a catastrophic, hopeless sight. Impoverishment is conspicuous. The capital has turned into a magnet for the population, with a big center surrounded by impoverishe districts around. Those are all portents of an internal plosion. And if the political elite of the country takes advantage of the continuing war in the form of the so-called 'truce' when people die almost every day, the internal destabilization and a social plosion are inevitable.
The established latent war situation should be rectified. The Armenian policy is no longer meeting the interests of Russia. Moreover, Armenia is burdening the state, patronizing it financially and, most importantly, geopolitically. This controversy, in the end, will force Armenia to alter its policy towards Azerbaijan. It will be compelled to return the occupied territories to it (the beginning of the European Games could be the optimal time for a wide resonance over the world). Armenia should not repeat the mistakes of 1918. Today, it needs to start actively conducting a policy of peaceful co-existence of all ethnic groups in the South Caucasus with its own efforts. Otherwise, it risks losing its own future.
It is not only of interest to Russia as its protector, it also suits the only possible, forced political logic of Armenia, oriented towards promotion of own interests. Compulsion to the logic will be as strong as the shrinking of state incomes will be limiting the expenditures of the Armenian budget. Pressure on the old and unheard call for politicians to learn lessons from numerous tragedies, mass murders and genocides that all ethnic groups (not only Armenians) suffered is growing. What is more important is that pressure is growing in light of the falling resources in stock. The pressure will end the inhuman, anti-Christian and irresponsible policy. People in the Caucasus will live in peace and consensus regardless of anything.
