Active mediation of Russia in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict gave a new impulse in the negotiations of the conflicting sides. The Russian president Dmitry Medvedev will meet presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia separately on the 17th and 18th of November. The joint meeting of the three presidents will take place at the OSCE summit in Astana on the 1st and 2nd of December. The heads of the countries are preparing to this event, at the same time the analysts and observers wait for a breaking through decision on the most protracted conflict in the post-Soviet area. The "Vestnik Kavkaza" agency asked about upcoming meetings of the presidents an Azerbaijani political scientist Rasim Musambekov.
- What do expect from the meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia?
- I think a compromise must be achieved before the meeting. I don't think that the presidents will be looking for an appropriate formulation at the summit. It must be formulated before the summit. If it is found and agreed, the presidents will announce it at the summit. It will save the meeting itself from Azerbaijani-Armenian struggle which might cause problems approving a final resolution, as it already happened in Lisbon. It is also possible that no compromise will be reached before the summit. N this case the summit will be burdened by the Karabakh problem, and no impulse will emerge after the summit.
- How do you evaluate the possibility of the compromise before the summit?
- We should remember that Russia is involved in this process. Dmitry Medvedev has participated in such meetings for 7 times, he also initiated the last meeting of the presidents in Astrakhan. We should also remember about importance of Russian arguments and advise as for Armenia, as for Azerbaijan. Moreover Russia is supported by the US and Europe. I can imagine that some progress might be reached. But it will difficult and complicated. The document to be signed by Azerbaijan and Armenia might be very short. From this point of view there are no problems. It might consist only of statement that the sides agree to accept the proposals of the Minsk group (so called the Madrid principles - VK) announced in 2008. Everybody hoped that the conflicting countries would agree with them, and the process would be launched. Now Azerbaijan said "yes". There is no clear answer from Armenia. I think the negotiators will try to make Armenia to accept the principles with minimal correction.
- Do you expect that if the agreement is reached, it will be based on the document prepared by the OSCE Minsk group?
- There is no alternative. And actually the document itself is only an introduction to development of peace agreement which might last for a long time. There are no details in this document. The details will be only in the framework agreement. But the essence is in the details.
Interviewed by Vsevolod Veselov. Exclusively for VK.
