The possibility of a large-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2025 is low, according to a report on the military and political situation in the South Caucasus by Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
"Based on the analysis of various factors, data, and events, as of the time of the publication of this report, we estimate the possibility of a large-scale military attack against Armenia by Azerbaijan to be minimal," the report reads.
The intelligence service also mentioned that under the conditions of a negotiated peace and Azerbaijan-Armenia state-to-state relations, the risk of localized tensions and escalation along the border will persist.
Armenia and CSTO
The report also noted that the CSTO’s incapacity (non-viability) to respond to the issues in the South Caucasus that are within CSTO statutory objectives, highly likely will not change.
