The alarm bell rang at the beginning of this week for Yerevan, when Belarus adopted a new military doctrine, the ban on the use of the Belarusian army in foreign military operations, right in the middle of the April battles for Karabakh.
The doctrine, which is not formally associated with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, showed the unwillingness of Minsk to be involved in the war on the side of Armenia, if it will be able to use the CSTO mechanisms for the protection of its aggressive policy of occupation against Azerbaijan.
Although the Collective Security Treaty Organization has repeatedly stressed that the CSTO forces will not fight in Karabakh, as it's Azerbaijan's territory, the organization's leading countries prefer to legally protect themselves from participation in the war on the side of the aggressor during the active phase of the conflict, even if the state borders between the republics are violated and the fighting spreads to the territory of Armenia as the result of a full-scale war.
Another reason for Minsk's decision in this regard is obvious: the close political, cultural and mutually beneficial economic relations between Azerbaijan and Belarus, as well as with other CSTO members, which are fixed by bilateral intergovernmental agreements. It is simply not profitable in this situation to help Yerevan, as it's a weak economic and political partner in comparison with Baku.
Will the action of Belarus become a precedent beneficial for other CSTO members, destroying Yerevan's hopes of protection?
The editor-in-chief of 'Military-Industrial Courier' and the magazine 'Aerospace Defense', Michael Khodarenok, said in an interview with a correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza that the CSTO should not be regarded as a capable and serious organization today. "The experience of its existence has shown that it is nothing more than exercises. I personally cannot think of it as an efficient and controllable organization, which can solve any problem. It's about decorations, performances, but not a battle-worthy military unit for immediate entry into a war," the expert pointed out.
In this regard, he expressed confidence that Armenia will not receive any assistance from the CSTO, so Yerevan shouldn't count on it. "There is no peaceful solution to the Karabakh problem, since the positions of the parties diverge diametrically – only another preservation of the conflict for a certain period is possible. There will be no assistance to Armenia from the CSTO and it is the height of political romanticism to count on it," Mikhail Khodarenok stressed.
The editor-in-chief of 'National Defense' magazine, Igor Korotchenko, noted that the CSTO is gradually losing its ability to adequately respond to threats after the change of military doctrine of Belarus. "The CSTO hasn't become the new Warsaw Pact. Collective defense provides for the activation of resistance mechanisms in the event of aggression. Of course, we are absolutely not satisfied with these realities, as they make the CSTO mechanism not capable enough in responding to threats," he said.
"In this case, the decision of Belarus is dictated by the incipient rapprochement between Minsk and the West, the removal of sanctions against Lukashenko and other officials. It is clear that the current political elite of Belarus is aimed at conducting joint operations with the Russian Federation only if Belarus will become the object of aggression," Igor Korotchenko stressed.
A military observer of the TASS news agency, retired Colonel Viktor Litovkin, in his turn, reminded that Belarus has followed this military policy for a long time. "It was written in the previous military doctrine of Belarus that the Belarusian army will not fight abroad. Even in the early years of the CSTO, the Belarus division did not take part in the exercises outside Belarus. But Minsk's statement is not necessarily an indication to action, because Belarus is an ally of Russia and if Russia is attacked, Belarus cannot refuse to protect it. These words have been said for the sake of removal of European sanctions," he concluded.
