The Bank of Russia is perceiving the February data with "a cautious optimism" in respect of inflation expectations, the Chairwoman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, said.
"I must say that the latest February data inspires some cautious optimism that inflation expectation even slightly declined, despite the [ruble] rate devaluation," she noted, expressing the hope that "dynamics will be positive".
The head of the Central Bank pointed out that there is still a traditional set of inflationary risks. "External shocks related to oil prices movements and the exchange rate dynamics are also possible. We never disregard them and therefore consider a risk-based scenario exactly from the standpoint of additional inflation risks," she explained. "Inflation expectations are also a factor of inflation risks," Nabiullina added.
At the same time, she said, the regulator has not yet estimated the ruble weakening contribution into annual inflation rates although recognizes that the Finance Ministry’s estimate (2.5% points) is relevant.