Experts of Commerzbank, BNP Paribas and UBS Group believe that the current 70% rise in oil prices 70%, compared to the January minimum rates, is similar to the last year’s situation at the market. Then the Brent barrel rose to $68 per barrel, but in May this trend came to naught. According to BNP and UBS experts, prices may return to $30 per barrel during next few weeks.
"There are dangerous parallels with 2015. The market has already overdone and the correction is too late,’’ Bloomberg cites the representative of Commerzbank Eugen Weinberg.
The Agency notes that prices rose because of the difficult situation in Nigeria, Iraq and Kuwait where oil workers went on strike. Moreover, the failure of the negotiations in Doha, where the OPEC countries and major exporters were unable to agree on the level of production freeze didn’t affect the quotations.
According to experts, a factor of shale oil may play a negative role. "The rise in prices may become ‘suicidal’ because it inspires shale oil producers in the US,’’ Harry Chilingirian who work at BNP Paribas underlined. The French bank clarify that low oil prices could suppress the American oil producers.
"The strengthening of oil prices is a path on thin ice,’’ Giovanni Staunovo, the UBS analyst, expressed his solidarity with the other experts.
According to a survey among representatives of oil companies, producers and experts, in April, OPEC crude oil to 484 thousand barrels more than in March, so that it reached 33.217 million barrels a day. It was the maximum since 1989 when Bloomberg began to conduct their researches.
Both sources explain that the increase in production was due to the return of Iran to the oil market, which increase its oil production after the lifting of sanctions. According to Bloomberg, Iran already produces 3.5 million barrels. It is the highest level since December 2011. According to Reuters data, the figure is 3.4 million barrels and a part of oil sent to the market by Iran could be taken from its storages.
Production growth was also registered in Iraq and the UAE.
As for Saudi Arabia, the Bloomberg reports that the country increased its production by 80,000 barrels per day to 10.27 million barrels. It is a record since last November. According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia produces 10.15 million barrels per day, which is below the level of March.
The most serious decline in production is in Kuwait due to the strike, which occurred in the middle of the month, RBC informs.
