The ruble exchange rate against the dollar has fallen sharply after recent growth in the last days. As of 12:52, the dollar increased by 1.59 rubles and was worth 72.28 rubles on the Moscow stock exchange. The euro gained 1.85 rubles and reached 79.39 rubles. This is the worst performance of the full year.
The Associate Professor of the stock markets and financial engineering department of the Faculty of Finance and Banking of RANEPA, Sergey Hestanov, told Vestnik Kavkaza that the current depreciation "is completely normal, since oil prices are reducing."Such a rapid drop as today is due the fact that "there was a long weekend when the Western stock exchanges were not working because of western Christmas." "Accordingly, changes which normally would have been spread over two days occurred in one day," he claimed.
"If we talk about the dollar, then judging by the behavior of long futures the dollar exchange rate will continue to rise. That is, further expectation of weakening of the ruble will continue. This means that the currency market participants are expecting a further weakening of the ruble in the first or second quarter of 2016," the expert explained.
However, he stressed that "unfortunately, a science-based limit does not exist." "Oil prices are very important for the ruble. And in the near future the whole world is expecting Iran's return to the oil market. And no one can predict how the oil market will react to the excess oil, which Iran threatens to throw on the market, because recently Iran has raised its forecast for oil exports from 1.5 million barrels per day to 2. This reflects the fact that Iran is in need of currencies and is ready to fill the world market with oil. Of course, if it exercises its application, it will cause a further oil price reduction and the weakening of the ruble," Hestanov noted.
"Basically, if all the current trends will continue, 75 rubles per dollar is quite a probable estimate, of course, unless there is some external critical shocks. But once again, the oil market is famous for its surprises," Sergey Hestanov concluded.
